Interest Rates

Global Macro Playbook
UK Consumer Confidence Sees Slight Uptick Following BOE Rate Cut
UK consumer confidence saw a modest improvement in February, according to a recent survey by GfK, cited by The Wall Street Journal. This follows the Bank of England's decision to cut its key interest rate earlier in the month.The monthly GfK survey showed consumer confidence rising to
Global Macro Playbook
BOJ Rate Hike Bets Rise as Japan's Inflation Hits 19-Month High
Japan's core consumer inflation surged to a 19-month high of 3.2% in January, Reuters reports, bolstering expectations that the Bank of Japan (BOJ) will continue raising interest rates. The inflation data, released on Friday, exceeded a median market forecast of 3.1% and followed December's
Global Macro Playbook
BOJ Ready to Step Up Bond Buying Amidst Yield Surge
Bank of Japan (BOJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda signaled Friday that the central bank stands ready to increase government bond purchases if long-term interest rates spike, Reuters reports. This comes after recent yield increases, reaching their highest levels in about 15 years.Ueda clarified that the BOJ's primary approach
Reuters
India's rate panel shifts focus to growth as inflation seen easing, minutes show
India's inflation is seen aligning with the target of 4%, which opens up space for monetary policy to address concerns on the growth front, members of the rate-setting committee said in the minutes of ...
Global Macro Playbook
UK Inflation Unexpectedly Rises, Complicating BOE Rate Cuts
The Bank of England's (BOE) plans to ease interest rates face a challenge as UK inflation unexpectedly rose to a ten-month high in January, as reported by The Wall Street Journal. This development comes as the BOE aims to stimulate economic growth, having already initiated a gradual approach
Global Macro Playbook
Fed Can Takes Its Time on Rate Decisions, Says Fed Vice Chair
Federal Reserve Vice Chair Philip Jefferson stated that the US economy's strength provides policymakers with the flexibility to carefully consider future interest rate adjustments, Bloomberg reports. His comments suggest a more cautious approach to further easing of monetary policy.Delivering prepared remarks Wednesday at an event at Vassar
The Financial Times
European Central Bank’s annual loss hits record €7.9bn
The European Central Bank’s loss ballooned to a record €7.9bn last year, as its interest rate payments on its own financial liabilities rose as a result of its decision to increase borrowing costs.
Global Macro Playbook
UK Wage Growth Surges Despite Weak Economy, BoE Remains Cautious
UK private sector wage growth accelerated in the last three months of 2024, reaching its fastest pace in a year, as reported by Reuters. This unexpected surge highlights the Bank of England's (BoE) cautious approach to interest rate cuts despite the overall weakness of the UK economy.The
Reuters
Russian economy is showing first signs of cooling, Ifax cites economy minister
Russia's economy is showing the first signs of cooling, with sales and orders falling in various sectors due to high interest rates and inflation, Economy Minister Maxim Reshetnikov was cited as ...
Reuters
Japan braces for BOJ to lift rates sooner and higher
Hawkish comments from the Bank of Japan and sticky inflation are lifting bond yields to multi-year highs and pushing forward rate hike expectations, shaking long-held views that rates would not rise ...
Global Macro Playbook
Markets Weekly: Trump vs the World Puts Rate Cuts at Risk
President Donald Trump's aggressive trade policy has thrown down the gauntlet, not just to America's trading partners, but also to the Federal Reserve. With a flurry of new tariffs, threats of more to come, and a clear desire for lower interest rates, Trump has created a
Reuters
Stocks edge up, yields fall as US data, tariff risk gauged
A benchmark of global stocks hit a record on Friday while U.S. Treasury yields dipped as some soft U.S. data and the latest tariff announcements raised hopes that the Federal Reserve may have some ...
Global Macro Playbook
US Producer Inflation Rises, But Core Inflation May Be Cooling
U.S. producer prices saw a solid increase in January, signaling a potential resurgence of inflation and potentially extending the pause on interest rate cuts, Reuters reports. This follows Wednesday's news that consumer prices saw their largest increase in nearly 18 months. However, some details of the PPI
Reuters
US producer inflation trends higher; labor market remains stable
U.S. producer prices increased solidly in January, offering more evidence inflation was picking up again and strengthening financial market views that the Federal Reserve would not be cutting interest ...
Global Macro Playbook
Fed's Williams: Current Interest Rates on Track to Curb Inflation
Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams expressed confidence that the current level of short-term interest rates will help bring inflation back down to the central bank's 2% target, according to remarks reported by Reuters.Williams' comments, delivered Tuesday in a speech before a gathering
Global Macro Playbook
Japan's Wholesale Inflation Heats Up, Strengthening Rate Hike Bets
Japan's wholesale inflation surged to a 4.2% annual increase in January, its fastest pace in five months, according to data released Thursday by the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications, as reported by Reuters. This unexpected acceleration reinforces market expectations of a near-term interest rate hike by
Global Macro Playbook
Dollar Surges as Hot Inflation Data Extends Rate Hike Bets
The US dollar soared to a one-week high against the Japanese yen on Wednesday, fueled by stronger-than-expected inflation data for January, as reported by Reuters. This unexpected jump in consumer prices is prompting markets to recalibrate their expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, potentially delaying the anticipated easing of
Global Macro Playbook
Fed to Hold Rates "Quite a While" Despite Hot Inflation, El-Erian Says
Mohamed El-Erian, President of Queens’ College, Cambridge, and Bloomberg Opinion columnist, says the Federal Reserve will likely hold interest rates steady for a significant period following the release of a hotter-than-expected inflation report.In an interview on Bloomberg Television, El-Erian stated that the Fed, if truly committed to its
Global Macro Playbook
US Inflation Unexpectedly Heats Up, Reinforcing Fed Pause
US inflation unexpectedly accelerated in January, further dampening hopes for near-term interest rate cuts, Bloomberg reports. The news, which follows a Wednesday report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, is likely to keep the Federal Reserve on hold for the foreseeable future.The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.5%
Reuters
Fed's Williams says monetary policy is in right place to achieve Fed goals
Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams said Tuesday the current level of short-term interest rates should help get inflation back to the central bank's 2% target, in comments that ...
The Financial Times
How low can European rates go?
In frequently declaring their monetary policy setting to be “restrictive”, European Central Bank president Christine Lagarde and Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey have raised the immediate follow ...
The Financial Times
US High School Economics class: ‘Neutral’ rate not driving monetary policy, say ECB officials
When would an unbiased economic adviser recommend implementing a policy rate below the estimated neutral rate?
Reuters
Leaving Fed behind, top central banks have room to ease
Central banks around the globe have plenty of room to keep cutting interest rates, and a limited "decoupling" from the U.S. Federal Reserve could continue as it pauses its own policy easing, according ...
Reuters
India central bank set to allow trading in bond forwards
The Reserve Bank of India is set to allow trading in bond forwards that long-term investors can use to manage their interest rate risk, the central bank said on Friday.
Reuters
Central banks grapple with uncertainty in 2025's foggy economic landscape
The grouped bar chart shows the policy rate for G10 central banks on Feb. 4, 2025 and the market implied rates at the end of July 2025.
Reuters
US bond market lukewarm on Bessent's 10-year yield pledge
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's pledge to contain yields on 10-year Treasury notes met some skepticism in the bond market on Thursday, as inflationary pressures and expectations of a widening ...
Global Macro Playbook
ECB Walks Fine Line on Inflation as US Tariffs Loom
European Central Bank (ECB) Chief Economist Philip Lane warned against excessive caution in cutting interest rates, while simultaneously expressing concern over the persistence of below-target inflation, as reported by the Wall Street Journal.Speaking in Washington, D.C., Lane emphasized the need for a "middle path" in monetary
Reuters
Bessent's focus on 10-year US Treasury yield may let Fed off the hook
The Trump administration's emerging focus on long-term Treasury bond yields may show growing sensitivity to market constraints that could impede President Donald Trump's economic plans, while also ...
Reuters
Bank of England cuts rates as it sees weaker growth and inflation spike
The Bank of England cut interest rates on Thursday as it halved its growth outlook for this year and said a jump in inflation will prove temporary, while two officials unexpectedly voted for an ...
Reuters
Uganda holds key rate, says near-term inflation looks well-contained
Uganda's central bank held its key lending rate at 9.75% on Thursday, saying that near-term inflation appeared well-contained but the outlook was more uncertain than normal given external risks.