Global Macro Playbook
Latest Global Macro News and Analysis

Latest news and headlines

Financial Times
Trafigura profits drop to 4-year low as energy markets ‘normalise’
Results follow reduction in volatility caused by outbreak of Ukraine war and losses incurred from fraud at Mongolian unit
Wall Street Journal
Easing Hopes Send China Bond Yields to New Lows
China’s benchmark government bond yields have fallen to a new low as investors rush into the market on policy easing hopes.
MarketWatch
10-year Treasury yield ends at nearly 3-week high after hotter-than-expected producer prices
Yields on one- through 30-year U.S. government debt finished higher on Thursday after the overall producer-price index for November came in above expectations, raising questions about whether ...
MarketWatch
Bond yields edge higher as Fed struggles with last mile of inflation fight
Bond yields edged higher on Friday after four consecutive rises, as traders grapple with data released this week showing the Fed struggling with the last mile of its inflation fight.
MarketWatch
Treasury's $22 billion sale of 30-year bonds produces decent results: BMO
Thursday afternoon's $22 billion sale of 30-year Treasury bonds drew non-dealer bidding of 85.6% that was in line with recent averages, according to BMO Capital Markets strategist Vail Hartman. In a ...
Kiplinger
Stock Market Today: Dow Extends Its Losing Streak
As for the main indexes, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gave back 0.5% to 43,914 – its fifth straight loss. The S&P 500 shed 0.5% to 6,051 and the Nasdaq Composite lost 0.7% to 19,902.
Reuters
Eggs boost US producer prices in November, but services inflation slowing
U.S. producer prices increased by the most in five months in November, but easing costs of services such as portfolio management fees and airline fares offered hope that the disinflationary trend ...
Financial Times
Resource nationalism on the rise amid geopolitical tensions
Businesses face increased risk from protectionism as countries race to secure access to critical minerals, according to new research
CNBC
10-year Treasury yield hovers above 4.3% as investors focus on the Fed's rate decision
Treasury yield was slightly higher on Friday as investors look ahead to the Federal Reserve's final meeting of the year. The 10-year Treasury yield was little changed at 4.333% at 5:00 a.m. ET, after ...
Reuters
NY Fed Markets Group chief Neal resigns, will exit bank in March 2025
The head of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York's powerful Markets Group, Michelle Neal, is stepping down and will leave the bank in March 2025, the bank said in a press releaseon Thursday.
Reuters
Asian shares weaken, dollar rises on U.S. Treasury sell-off
Asian shares dropped on Friday as a lack of details on Chinese stimulus disappointed investors, while the dollar was buoyed by the biggest weekly rise in longer-dated Treasury yields in a year on ...
MarketWatch
World Gold Council says 'core motivations' for central-bank gold purchases to persist in 2025
Global gold demand is likely to remain strong next year, but central-bank demand for the precious metal, which helped drive this year's price gains, will be difficult to predict, according to the ...
MarketWatch
Oil prices end lower as IEA sees global market ‘comfortably supplied’ next year
Oil prices moved lower on Thursday, on track to end a three-session streak of gains, after the International Energy Agency lowered its global oil-demand growth estimate for this year and said the ...
Financial Times
Hedge fund Citadel poaches second Elliott portfolio manager in London
Pawel Serej, who left Elliott in the summer, is joining $65bn hedge fund Citadel in London as an event-driven portfolio manager, according to people familiar with the situation. He will focus on risk ...
Reuters
Gold set for weekly gain with focus on Fed's policy decision
Gold prices edged higher on Friday and were set for a weekly gain, driven by reports of top consumer China resuming gold purchases, and heightened expectations of an interest rate reduction by the ...
Financial Times
Bundesbank slashes growth forecast and sounds alarm over trade war
Germany faces another year of economic stagnation even in a best-case scenario, the Bundesbank warned on Friday, as it slashed its 2025 growth forecast to just 0.1 per cent and added that a trade war ...
Financial Times
What high stock prices do
A lot of attention has been paid to high equity valuations. Rightly so. Less attention has been paid to credit, specifically high yield. The spread between junk yields and Treasuries is near a record ...
Reuters
Analysis-China's bond market sees more economic pain ahead
Investors in Chinese bonds head for 2025 betting there will be no miraculous recovery in the economy, putting them at odds with an equities market that has wagered on a revival in consumption.
Barron's
Oil Headed for Weekly Gains Amid Threat of Further Sanctions on Russia, Iran
Oil prices are on track for weekly gains as prospects of tighter sanctions against Russia and Iran raise market concerns over supply disruptions. Brent crude and WTI are both up 0.2% at $73.57 and $70 ...
Reuters
China's bond market sees more economic pain ahead
Investors in Chinese bonds head for 2025 betting there will be no miraculous recovery in the economy, putting them at odds with an equities market that has wagered on a revival in consumption.
MT Newswires
US Equities Markets End Lower Thursday as Producer Prices Increase More Than Expected
US benchmark equity indexes ended lower Thursday after official data showed that producer prices rose more than Wall Street's expectations in November. * The US producer price index increased more ...
Reuters
Global equities retreat after ECB cuts rates; gold, oil fall
Global stocks were down and major Wall Street indexes fell on Thursday after the European Central Bank cut interest rates for a fourth time this year, as gold prices slid from a five-week high. Europe ...
Financial Times
Chinese bond yields at widest gap with US in more than a decade
The gap between the US and China’s borrowing costs has grown to its widest level in more than a decade, in a sign of the sharp divergence in the bond market’s expectations for the world’s two largest ...
Financial Times
Rio Tinto to invest $2.5bn in latest commitment to lithium
Mining major is betting on metal’s future because of its key role in electric vehicle batteries despite global glut
MarketWatch
Stock Market Today: Dow tallies longest losing streak since April as stocks finish lower
The Vanguard Value ETF, a large exchange-traded fund that invests in large-cap value stocks in the U.S., was on track Thursday for its longest losing streak since 2018.
MT Newswires
Oil Market Seen 'Comfortably Supplied' in 2025 Despite Extended OPEC+ Production Cuts, IEA Says
The International Energy Agency on Thursday increased its 2025 global oil demand outlook and said the market is expected to be "comfortably supplied" despite a recent decision by key oil-producing ...
Reuters
Trafigura net profit, equity drops after Mongolia fraud
Global commodity trading house Trafigura saw a sharp drop in its earnings for 2024 and has revised down its equity and profits for previous years after it discovered a billion-dollar oil fraud in ...
Wall Street Journal
JGBs, Yen Consolidate as Traders Digest BOJ Tankan
JGBs and the yen consolidated in the morning Tokyo session as traders assessed the BOJ tankan released earlier.
Barron's
Oil Futures End Volatile Session Lower After IEA Report
Crude oil futures snap a three-day winning streak in a session of ups and downs as the market grapples with the supply and demand outlook for next year. The IEA raised its 2025 oil demand growth ...
MT Newswires
Equities Fall After Hotter-Than-Projected Producer Prices Report
US benchmark equity indexes dropped Thursday after official data showed that producer prices increased more than Wall Street's projections in November. The Nasdaq Composite fell 0.7% to 19,902.8 after ...
Reuters
Realtors group forecasts US 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaging 6% in 2025
The rate on the popular U.S. 30-year fixed-rate mortgage will average around 6.0% next year and help to boost new housing construction and stimulate demand for previously owned homes, the National ...
Kiplinger
Stock Market Today: Dow Logs Longest Losing Streak Since April
As for the main indexes, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gave back 0.5% to 43,914 – its fifth straight loss. The S&P 500 shed 0.5% to 6,051 and the Nasdaq Composite lost 0.7% to 19,902.
Bloomberg
The Fed Can’t Ignore All of Trump’s Intentions
When US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell faces the media after the central bank’s policy-making meeting next week, he’ll probably get a politically fraught question: How will the Fed incorporate ...
Reuters
European Central Bank cuts interest rates for fourth time this year
The move by the ECB comes as inflation across the euro zone is nearly back at target and the economy is faltering ...
Wall Street Journal
Stock Market Today: S&P 500, Nasdaq Fall; Trump Rings NYSE Bell
Live updates on stocks, bonds and other markets, including the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite.
Financial Times
Former BP chief Looney joins board of Abu Dhabi energy group XRG
Blackstone chief operating officer Jonathan Gray also appointed to board
Barron's
ECB Just Cut Interest Rates. Expect Its Next Moves to Diverge From the Fed.
But whereas the Fed might start slowing down reductions next year, the ECB is more likely to plow ahead. The difference is that, while interest rates on both sides of the Atlantic are considered high ...
Reuters
US consumer prices post largest rise in seven months; rents finally slowing
U.S. consumer prices increased in November by the most in seven months, but the Federal Reserve was still expected to deliver a third consecutive interest rate cut next week to support a labor market ...
Reuters
NYSE's Lynn Martin sees active IPO market in 2025
The market for U.S. initial public offerings could see high levels of interest from investors next year, said Lynn Martin, president of the New York Stock Exchange on Wednesday at the Reuters NEXT ...
Bloomberg
Bloomberg Daybreak Europe: US Economic Data Under Threat
Overnight on Wall Street is morning in Europe.Monitor your investments 24 hours a day, around the clock from around the globe. Hosted by Caroline Hepker and Roger Hearing.
Barron's
Stock Futures Fall Further After Latest Economic Data
Stock futures declined further after wholesale price inflation and initial jobless claims both rose more than expected. Dow futures were down 0.1%. S&P 500 futures were down 0.3%. Nasdaq 100 futures ...
MarketWatch
Are negative interest rates about to make a comeback? One banker says it’s possible
The Swiss central bank as well as the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan, Sweden’s Riksbank and Denmark’s Nationalbank all employed negative interest rates after the 200 ...
Reuters
Traders add to bets the Fed will keep cutting rates next year
Dec 12 (Reuters) - Traders of interest-rate futures that settle to the Federal Reserve's policy rate added to bets the central bank rate will cut borrowing costs next week and follow up next year with ...
Reuters
ECB Live: Interest rates cut to 3%, Lagarde talks Trump tariffs and political instability
Christine Lagarde & Co are widely expected to trim rates by a quarter of a percentage point to 3% from 3.25%. That’s the view of all but two of the 75 economists that Reuters has polled - with the ...
Financial Times
Exxon cranks up oil output despite fears of supply glut
Energy supermajor’s bet on production comes after US rival Chevron announced cut to capital expenditure
CNBC
10-year Treasury yield jumps above 4.3% after series of concerning inflation reports
U.S. Treasury yields rose Thursday as investors digested the latest inflation reading and awaited further data.
Bloomberg
US Junk-Bond Market Is Increasingly Just for Refinancing Itself
Companies are increasingly using the $1.4 trillion US junk-bond market to refinance existing debt, while new borrowing is happening more in private and leveraged loan markets.
Financial Times
ECB cuts interest rates by a quarter-point to 3%
The European Central Bank has cut interest rates by a quarter-point to 3 per cent, warning that growth will be weaker than it had previously forecast. The ECB’s cut — its fourth reduction in borrowing ...
Barron's
Where the Market Is Headed in 2025, From 4 Money Pros
Investment pros at wealth management companies see a positive year ahead but differ in their levels of optimism.
Reuters
Swiss National Bank cuts interest rates by 50 basis points
The Swiss National Bank cut its interest rate by 50 basis points on Thursday, its biggest reduction in almost 10 years as it sought to stay ahead of expected cuts by other central banks and cap the ...
Reuters
European equities won’t provide safety if US bubble bursts: Klement
High U.S. equity valuations have been ringing alarm bells in recent weeks, signalling that the market may be ripe for a correction. Investors may respond by moving into cheaper European markets, but ...
Wall Street Journal
ECB’s Expected Interest-Rate Cut to Support German Bunds
Bunds opened little changed and Commerzbank Research said they were expected to be supported by an anticipated 25 basis point interest-rate cut and likely lower growth and inflation projections from ...
The Economist
The Federal Reserve takes on Trump—and stubborn inflation
When the Fed last published its quarterly outlook in September, for instance, a solid majority on its monetary-policy committee projected that their most important inflation gauge would retreat to 2.2% next year.
Reuters
ECB cuts interest rates for fourth time this year
The European Central Bank cut interest rates for the fourth time this year on Thursday and kept the door open to further easing ahead as inflation closes in on its goal and the economy remains weak.
Global Macro Playbook
US Inflation Shows Signs of Stalling, Raising Concerns for Fed

US inflation likely saw another month of firm price increases in November, suggesting that progress toward the Federal Reserve's target is slowing, reports Bloomberg. Economists polled by Bloomberg project a 0.3% rise in the core consumer price index (CPI), excluding food and energy, for the fourth consecutive

Barron's
Oil Prices Rise Amid Report U.S. Is Considering Further Russia Sanctions
Oil prices rise, with Brent crude and WTI both up 0.5% at $73.91 a barrel and $70.62 a barrel, respectively. Oil prices have been supported by reports that the Biden administration is potentially ...
Bloomberg
US-China Economy Talks Resume as Yellen Urges Maintaining Links
Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen urged the next US administration to maintain the dialogue channels that she re-established with China, speaking on the eve of what’s likely to be the last round of ...
Reuters
Exclusive: BOJ leaning toward keeping rates steady next week, sources say
The Bank of Japan is leaning toward keeping interest rates steady next week as policymakers prefer to spend more time scrutinising overseas risks and clues on next year's wage outlook, said five ...
Reuters
China vows to issue more debt, cut interest rates next year
China pledged on Thursday to increase the budget deficit, issue more debt and loosen monetary policy to maintain a stable economic growth rate as it gears up for more trade tensions with the United ...
Wall Street Journal
Stock Market Today: Futures Slip; European Central Bank, SNB Cut Interest Rates
Live updates on stocks, bonds and other markets, including the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite.
Wall Street Journal
JGBs Mixed Amid Possible Position Adjustments
JGBs are mixed in the morning Tokyo session amid possible position adjustments. The Japanese government bond market is expected to consolidate this session with a weak bias, fixed-income strategists ...
Reuters
BNY CEO optimistic on US economic growth, AI potential
BNY expects a U.S. economic growth boost under the new Donald Trump U.S. presidency and is investing in artificial intelligence and services for digital assets to enhance solutions for its clients, ...
Reuters
Asia stocks rally on Fed cut bets; Aussie jumps on jobs data
Asian stocks gained on Thursday, tracking Wall Street's tech-led rally overnight after an as-expected reading of U.S. consumer inflation cemented bets for a Federal Reserve interest-rate cut next week ...
Reuters
SNB says likelihood of negative interest rates has come down
The Swiss National Bank could still take interest rates into negative territory, Chairman Martin Schlegel, although the likelihood of such a move has reduced after the central bank's latest cut in ...
MarketWatch
Stock Market Today: Nasdaq aims for first close above 20,000 threshold
Gold prices could hit $3,000 an ounce by the end of 2025, even if the value of the U.S. dollar continues to rise, Goldman Sachs has said. Increases in the value of America’s currency have typically ...
Reuters
Oil settles up $1 as EU agrees further sanctions threatening Russian oil flows
Oil prices settled more than $1 higher on Wednesday after the European Union agreed to an additional round of sanctions threatening Russian oil flows that could tighten global crude supplies.