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Global Macro Playbook
Latest Global Macro News and Analysis

Featured articles

Trump and Bond Yields

Trump and Bond Yields

Can China Spend Its Way Out of a Slump?

Can China Spend Its Way Out of a Slump?

Goldman Sachs Projects 50% Growth for Global Gas Market

Goldman Sachs Projects 50% Growth for Global Gas Market

Mutual Funds Embrace Leverage, Pushing Treasury Futures Holdings to Record Highs

Mutual Funds Embrace Leverage, Pushing Treasury Futures Holdings to Record Highs

Japan's Stock Market Rally Shows Staying Power: Fidelity

Japan's Stock Market Rally Shows Staying Power: Fidelity

Delayed Fed Rate Cuts Raise Credit Risks and Spillover Concerns, S&P Global Warns

Delayed Fed Rate Cuts Raise Credit Risks and Spillover Concerns, S&P Global Warns

US Consumer Borrowing Growth Slows Amidst High Interest Rates

US Consumer Borrowing Growth Slows Amidst High Interest Rates

EIA Forecasts Brent Crude to Remain Near $90 per Barrel in 2024

EIA Forecasts Brent Crude to Remain Near $90 per Barrel in 2024

S&P Global Pushes Back Fed Rate Cut Expectations

S&P Global Pushes Back Fed Rate Cut Expectations

S&P 500 Companies Exceed Earnings Expectations in Q1: FactSet

S&P 500 Companies Exceed Earnings Expectations in Q1: FactSet

Asian Central Banks Face Currency Weakness as US Dollar Strengthens

Asian Central Banks Face Currency Weakness as US Dollar Strengthens

Treasury Signals Stable Debt Issuance, Calming Market Jitters

Treasury Signals Stable Debt Issuance, Calming Market Jitters

Central Banks Fuel Record-Breaking Gold Demand: World Gold Council

Central Banks Fuel Record-Breaking Gold Demand: World Gold Council

Oil Price Outlook: Upside Risks Dominate, Says World Bank

Oil Price Outlook: Upside Risks Dominate, Says World Bank

Global Economic Expansion Broadens, But US Growth Slows: S&P Global

Global Economic Expansion Broadens, But US Growth Slows: S&P Global

China Real Estate: Multi-Year Adjustments Needed, RBC Predicts

China Real Estate: Multi-Year Adjustments Needed, RBC Predicts

Private Equity at an Inflection Point: Goldman Sachs

Private Equity at an Inflection Point: Goldman Sachs

High Gas Inventory Levels Point to Easing Market Fundamentals: IEA

High Gas Inventory Levels Point to Easing Market Fundamentals: IEA

Oil: What a Fracking World

Oil: What a Fracking World

[Video] Will Inflation Save Japan from the Lost Decades?

[Video] Will Inflation Save Japan from the Lost Decades?

The Resurgence of Japan

The Resurgence of Japan

The Institutionalization of Gold

The Institutionalization of Gold

The Crisis of Aging

The Crisis of Aging

The Carry in the Conundrum

The Carry in the Conundrum

Latest news and headlines

Global Macro Playbook
Corporate America on Edge as Trump's Tariff Threat Looms

Corporate executives are adopting a wait-and-see approach to President-elect Donald Trump's promised heavy tariffs on imports, but many have expressed significant concerns about the inflationary impact of such measures, reports Reuters.

Numerous major US corporations have addressed the tariff issue at recent investor events and conference calls, with

Global Macro Playbook
Fed Uncertain on Extent of Future Rate Cuts: Schmid

Federal Reserve interest rate cuts are a sign of growing confidence that inflation is heading towards the central bank’s 2% target, but it remains unclear how far rates can fall, Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid said on Tuesday in his remarks prepared for delivery to the Omaha

Forbes
Nvidia Rallies 5% Ahead Of Earnings: What To Expect From ‘Most Important’ Stock’s Report
Nvidia earnings “can dictate the near-term direction of the market,” according to Bank of America strategists.
Reuters
Fed's Schmid says it is uncertain how far interest rates can fall
It remains uncertain how far interest rates can fall, though the initial reductions made by the U.S. central bank are a vote of confidence that inflation is returning to its 2% target, Kansas City Fed ...
Wall Street Journal
Japan Exports Rebounded in October on China Shipment Recovery
Exports rose 3.1% in October from a year earlier, compared with a 1.7% drop in September. Economists polled by data provider FactSet had forecast a 3.9% increase. Shipments to Chi ...
MarketWatch
Stock Market Today: Dow ends lower for 4th straight day, Nasdaq pops 1% as Wall Street shakes off Russia's nuclear shift
This Fed-based market signal is flashing a warning for the first time in over a decade. Here’s why it matters.
Reuters
Indonesia central bank holds rates steady, as expected
Indonesia's central bank held interest rates unchanged on Wednesday, as expected, saying policy was focused on maintaining stability in the rupiah currency while making sure inflation stays within its ...
Bloomberg
Bond Traders See Short-Bet Payoff Capped as Dip Buyers Emerge
The Trump trade in the Treasury market is hitting a wall as buyers have emerged to halt the post-election leap in bond yields.
Bloomberg
Ex-Federal Reserve Bank Examiner Pleads Guilty to Insider Trades
A former senior supervisor at the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond pleaded guilty to insider trading with confidential information obtained from some of the banks he was responsible for regulating.
Reuters
Fed to lower rates in Dec but slow pace in 2025 on inflation risks: Reuters poll
The U.S. Federal Reserve will trim interest rates next month but make shallower cuts in 2025 than expected just a month ago due to the risk of higher inflation from President-elect Donald Trump's ...
Bloomberg
Euro-Yen Gains Focus as ECB, BOJ Monetary Policies Diverge
Euro-yen is getting increased attention as policy divergence between the two regions looks set to offer opportunities in the currency pair.
Reuters
Nearly 1 million UK workers are uncounted, think tank says
BRITAIN’S official labour market statistics may be failing to count almost 1 million people who are in work, complicating the Bank of England’s task of deciding how quickly to cut interest rates, a ...
Forbes
3 Reasons To Hedge U.S. Equities And Some Ways To Do It
People should consider hedging some of their equity positions with Shiller's CAPE ratio at the highest level since 2000, bonds more attractive and a trade war looming.
Bloomberg
ECB Says Trade Heightens Financial-Stability Risks for Euro Zone
Rising trade frictions pose an additional risk to the euro-area economy and threaten to amplify vulnerabilities in the region’s financial system, the European Central Bank warned.
MarketWatch
Treasury yields rise as prospects for the U.S. economy see traders trim rate cut bets
Bond yields rose as geopolitical anxiety continued to ease and investors awaited president-elect Trump’s pick for Treasury secretary.
Reuters
Taiwan October export orders beat forecasts on AI, China demand remains soft
Taiwan export orders maintained strong momentum going into the final quarter by beating expectations for October, as the island benefits from demand for artificial intelligence (AI) technology, though also grappling with softness from China.
Kiplinger
Stock Market Today: Stocks Rally Despite Rising Geopolitical Tension
The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) – known as the market's "fear gauge" – jumped from 15.58 at Monday's closing bell to as high as 17.93 on Tuesday before settling at 16.13. The VIX, which reached a ...
Sky News
Latest inflation data will be cause for concern for rate-setters
The rise in employers' national insurance contributions could also lead to higher prices. This has raised the inflation forecasts and likely slowed the pace of interest rate cuts. Market expectations for an interest rate cut in December have now fallen to just 16%.
Associated Press
Japan records a trade deficit in October for a 4th straight month, despite export recovery
Japan racked up a trade deficit in October for the fourth month in a row, as a weak yen and the rising price of energy kept import costs high.
Barron's
Stock Market News: Dow Set to Rise, Treasury Yields Up, Nvidia Earnings on Deck
Stock futures rose early Wednesday as markets continued to shrug off geopolitical fears ahead of Nvidia’s eagerly-anticipated earnings. Futures on the S&P 500 rose 0.2%, Dow Jones Industrial Average ...
MT Newswires
US Equities Markets End Mixed Tuesday Amid Geopolitical Tensions
US benchmark equity indexes ended mixed Tuesday amid escalating tensions between Russia and Ukraine. Ukraine has attacked a Russian weapons arsenal with US-made missiles, CNN reported, citing two US ...
The Economist
A fiscal squeeze in 2025 will harm Europe’s growth
A squeeze in 2025 and beyond will fuel divisions and cut growth. It may undermine efforts to step up security spending and continue to support Ukraine ...
Forbes
What To Expect From The Fed On Interest Rates In 2025
Most expect the Federal Open Market Committee to cut interest rates in 2025. The question of how much will be informed by economic data.
Bloomberg
Warsh Seen by Markets as Seasoned Candidate to Lead US Treasury
President-elect Donald Trump has yet to announce his pick for Treasury secretary, but Kevin Warsh — a former Federal Reserve board member well known to Wall Street — has at least won some backing in ...
Reuters
ECB warns of 'bubble' in AI stocks as funds deplete cash buffers
The European Central Bank warned on Wednesday about a "bubble" in stocks related to artificial intelligence (AI), which could burst abruptly if investors' rosy expectations are not met.
U.S. News & World Report
Dollar Strengthens Against Yen on Bank of Japan's Hike Uncertainty
Japanese Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato on Friday put the market on warning of possible intervention if the yen fell too far and fast, sending the dollar down 1.3% to 154.30 yen. Support now lies at ...
MarketWatch
Here’s what bond and gold traders are signaling about Russia’s nuclear shift
Traditional flight-to-safety trades took off on Tuesday in response to a worsening conflict between Russia and Ukraine, but a closer look at the extent of the bond market’s moves and a rise in gold ...
Business Insider
Trump may face bond vigilantes amid concerns over inflation and the deficit
"It's not a foregone conclusion that we will have a financial crisis," Chang said.
The Economist
What Donald Trump’s election means for the global economy
Donald Trump’s trade plan for 2025 would hit China and Mexico hard as well as cause global damage. But he will struggle to implement it in full ...
Wall Street Journal
Trump Probably Won’t Try to Fire Jerome Powell
President Trump’s election has reignited the debate over whether he might attempt to fire Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. Yet firing Mr. Powell is unlikely to be on the president-elect’s immediate priority list unless inflation suddenly spikes ...
Fortune
The corporate exodus from China is gaining momentum, study says
The share of companies that are moving operations out of China jumped to 69% in 2024 from 55% in 2022, a Bain survey said.
Bloomberg
T. Rowe Cuts High-Grade Credit Bets on 2025 Inflation Volatility
T. Rowe Price Group Inc. is in risk-off form in parts of the credit markets, anticipating pressure on yields from higher inflation next year will make the stability of bank loans preferable to the ...
Reuters
Japan's exports expand in Oct; potential Trump tariffs dim outlook
Japan's exports rebounded in October, led by a pickup in chip equipment demand in China, data showed on Wednesday, suggesting that solid global demand was underpinning the country's still fragile ...
Bloomberg
Prudential’s China-Fueled Slump Leaves Stock Ripe for a Rebound
Prudential Plc shares have fallen so far this year amid worries over the insurer’s China exposure that they now offer the most implied upside of any stock in the FTSE 100 index, based on average ...
Reuters
Americans want Trump to focus on inflation in his first 100 days, Reuters/Ipsos poll finds
WASHINGTON, Nov 19 (Reuters) - Americans see inflation as the leading issue President-elect Donald Trump should tackle during his first 100 days in office, according to a Reuters/Ipsos published on ...
Bloomberg
ECB Rates Clearly Headed Lower But Prudence Needed, Guindos Says
It’s “crystal clear” that European Central Bank interest rates will be reduced further but officials shouldn’t rush the process due to uncertainties including rising trade tensions and global ...
Associated Press
Japan records trade deficit for the fourth month straight despite export recovery
Japan racked up a trade deficit in October for the fourth month in a row, as a weak yen and the rising price of energy kept import costs high.
Financial Times
Citadel Securities aims to become big player in Eurozone bond trading
Citadel Securities is aiming to become a “material” player in Eurozone government bond trading by next year after building a team of traders in Paris and securing valuable access to German debt ...
Reuters
Explainer-How far could the Bank of Japan raise interest rates?
The Bank of Japan is laying the groundwork to raise interest rates again, but has left markets guessing how soon and at what pace it could push up still-low borrowing costs. Here is a guide to the BOJ ...
Reuters
Japan exports rebound on China chipmaking demand but Trump tariff risks loom
Japan's exports expanded faster than expected in October, led by a pick-up in chip equipment demand in China, though fears persist over potential U.S. protectionist trade policies that could hamper ...
Reuters
Indonesia central bank holds rates steady as it focuses on FX stability
Indonesia's central bank left interest rates unchanged on Wednesday, as expected, saying changed global dynamics after the U.S. election meant it had to focus on stabilising the currency, and analysts ...
Reuters
European shares stall as real estate stocks weigh
European shares kicked off the week on a dour note, weighed down by declines in real estate stocks, while investors studied speeches from European Central Bank policymakers to assess the future ...
CNBC
China's vice premier vows to boost Hong Kong's financial competitiveness, says stimulus push has 'benefited' the city
Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng on Tuesday vowed to boost Hong Kong's competitiveness by investing in the city's innovation and delivering supportive financial policies. Beijing's stimulus measures ...
Reuters
Dollar strengthens against yen on Bank of Japan's hike uncertainty
The dollar rose against the yen on Monday to resume its recent ascent after Japan's top central bank official signaled further monetary policy tightening was on the horizon, but was vague on the ...
Reuters
Canada's annual inflation rate rises to 2% in October
Canada's annual inflation rate accelerated more than expected to 2.0% in October as gas prices fell less than the previous month, data showed on Tuesday, likely diluting chances of another large rate ...
SCMP
Trump’s new China tariffs could give potent, brief boost to Southeast Asia
Though China tariffs would make factories in Vietnam or Thailand more appealing, analysts said other restrictions could wipe out those gains.
Newsweek
German Government Collapse Is a Bad Sign for Europe | Opinion
The fall of Germany's coalition government exposed deep cracks. The stalling German economic engine signals the end of an era in European politics.
MarketWatch
10-year Treasury yield sits below 4.5% as market participants eye near-term consolidation
Yields on U.S. government debt finished mostly lower on a lack of major market-moving data on Monday, as market participants weighed the prospects for near-term consolidation in the bond market.What ...
CNBC
Treasury yields fall as investors await data for clues about the economy
U.S. Treasury yields slid as investors awaited new data and considered who President-elect Donald Trump might appoint as Treasury Secretary.
Bloomberg
30-Year Bond Yields Rise to Highest Since May on Growth Outlook
The Treasuries selloff deepened Monday sending long-term bond yields to the highest in almost six months as investors continue to digest how Donald Trump’s victory of the presidential election may ...
U.S. News & World Report
Analysis-Investors Reload Rate Hike Bets in Japan
"Our focus has been on Japan mid-caps and Japan banks," said George Efstathopoulos, manager of a $102 million global multi-asset fund at Fidelity International, as they stand to benefit from wage ...
Business Insider
Millennials having fewer kids could be a drag on the economy for the next decade
Millennials aren't having as many kids as previous generations, and that fact could end up dragging down economic growth for more than a decade. That may not faze some child-free millennials, who ...
Wall Street Journal
BOJ Governor Sticks to Stance on More Rate Hikes Despite U.S. Uncertainty
NAGOYA, Japan—The Bank of Japan’s governor affirmed that the door remains open to more rate hikes, saying they could come before clarity emerges on U.S. economic policy, even as he carefully avoided ...
Forbes
Examining The New Key Moments Of Truth For The Retail Consumer
The interplay of merchandising craftsmanship, customer service quality and technological sophistication is a delicate balance shaping key moments of truth for customers.

More from global macro playbook

Newsletter

Nov
10

Trump and Bond Yields

Oct
06

Can China Spend Its Way Out of a Slump?

Jan
12

2024 Equity Outlook

Jan
07

2024 Interest Rate Outlook

Dec
11

An In-Depth Look at The German Dax Index

See all

Equities

Nov
20

Corporate America on Edge as Trump's Tariff Threat Looms

Nov
17

European Stocks Lag US by Record Margin as Trump's Protectionist Policies Loom

Nov
16

Global Stocks Tumble as Fed Signals Slower Rate Cuts

Nov
14

US Stocks Poised for Strong 2025 Performance, BofA Survey Predicts

Nov
12

US Chip Export Controls Spark Volatility in Semiconductor Sector

See all

Fixed Income

Nov
16

Colombia Bond Market Roiled by Petro's Budget Overhaul

Nov
16

Asian Bonds Suffer Outflows Amid US Election Uncertainty

Nov
15

US Companies Rush to Tap Post-Election Bond Market

Nov
13

Templeton Joins JPMorgan, T. Rowe in Warning of Higher Treasury Yields

Nov
12

JGB Yields Edge Up, Investors Await US & Japan Economic Signals

See all

Commodities

Nov
19

Norway's Sverdrup Oilfield Back to Two-Thirds Capacity After Outage

Nov
18

Trump's Energy Secretary Pick Celebrated in Middle East

Nov
16

Gold Prices Plunge on Fed Rate-Cut Uncertainty

Nov
12

Saudi Crude Oil Supply to China to Fall in December on Weak Demand

Nov
11

Hurricane Rafael Impact: Over 25% of Gulf Oil Production Remains Offline

See all

Interest Rates

Nov
20

Fed Uncertain on Extent of Future Rate Cuts: Schmid

Nov
18

BOJ Governor Sees Increased Likelihood of Wage-Driven Inflation

Nov
16

Global Stocks Tumble as Fed Signals Slower Rate Cuts

Nov
11

US Disinflation Stalls, Highlighting Tough Road Ahead

Nov
08

Fed Cuts Rates But Trump's Re-Election Casts Shadow Over Future Policy

See all

Economy

Nov
20

Corporate America on Edge as Trump's Tariff Threat Looms

Nov
18

BOJ Governor Sees Increased Likelihood of Wage-Driven Inflation

Nov
17

Bank of England Governor Calls for Stronger UK-EU Ties Post-Brexit

Nov
16

US Retail Sales Rise in October, Signaling Continued Consumer Strength

Nov
12

JGB Yields Edge Up, Investors Await US & Japan Economic Signals

See all