Global Macro Playbook
Latest Global Macro News and Analysis

Latest news and headlines

Markets Insider
An economist known as 'Dr. Doom' has launched an ETF designed to protect against Trump risks
Nouriel Roubini launched the Atlas America Fund on Wednesday to offer investors protection from coming risks under Trump.
Financial Times
The enriched uranium market is all at sea
Russia’s retaliatory restrictions on exports to the US have yet to hit prices
Bloomberg
Allegra Stratton: Is 2.3% too High for Inflation?
OK, let’s start with the slightly gloomy news that inflation has jumped back up. It’s déjà-vu all over again with quite a lurch above the Bank of England’s 2% threshold to 2.3%. That’s the biggest ...
Reuters
Market’s Trump trades at risk from bond vigilantes
Markets have experienced a “Trump bump”. The euphoria among equity investors, cryptocurrency fans and dollar-loving currency traders stems from U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s deregulation and tax ...
SCMP
China’s ‘significant challenge’ to US, Elon Musk’s security ‘threat’: SCMP daily catch-up
From to Elon Musk’s security ‘threat’ to PLA’s strategy to throw US off, here’s a round-up from today’s China and Economy coverage.
Wall Street Journal
Fed’s Bowman Sees U.S. Inflation Remaining as Prime Economic Concern
Bowman, who cast a rare dissenting vote when the Fed decided on a half-percentage-point cut in September, on Wednesday said she still thinks prices are rising too fast.
Financial Times
Uganda targets 2027 start for world’s longest heated oil pipeline
Financing delays blamed on protests will not derail crude project, says minister at COP climate summit
Bloomberg
Japan’s Ishiba Set to Announce $140 Billion Stimulus, NHK Says
Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba is set to unveil a ¥21.9 trillion ($140 billion) economic stimulus package to address a range of challenges from inflation to wage growth, according to public ...
Reuters
Oil prices firm as geopolitical tensions raise supply concerns
Oil prices edged higher on Thursday due to supply concerns triggered by escalating geopolitical tensions amid the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine. Brent crude futures for January rose 28 cents, ...
SCMP
Wary of ‘vicious’ events, China makes migrant worker arrears a priority
Social harmony takes centre stage after high-profile killings, and China’s cabinet says the unpaid salaries of migrant labourers require political action.
Bloomberg
Goldman Says Rich Credit Valuations Unlikely to Cheapen in 2025
US corporate bond investors will likely start 2025 with the most challenging valuation backdrop in decades, but attractive yields should keep the asset class compelling, according to analysts at ...
Reuters
Indonesia central bank leaves rates on hold as it focuses on FX stability
Indonesia's central bank left interest rates unchanged on Wednesday, as expected, saying changed global dynamics after the U.S. election meant it had to focus on stabilising the currency, and analysts ...
Forbes
Nvidia Dips Ahead Of Earnings: What To Expect From ‘Most Important’ Stock’s Report
Options traders price in Nvidia's quarterly results as a more pivotal event for the broader market than the upcoming interest rate decision or the monthly inflation and jobs reports.
Global Macro Playbook
Roubini Launches New ETF to Hedge Against Trump's Inflationary Policies

Economist Nouriel Roubini, known for his accurate prediction of the 2008 financial crisis, has launched a new exchange-traded fund (ETF) designed to protect investors from the potential inflationary consequences of Donald Trump's economic policies, reports Bloomberg.

Roubini argues that Trump's planned tax cuts and tariffs threaten

MT Newswires
Wells Fargo Raises S&P 500 Target Level for Next Year Amid Economic Strength, Policy Changes
The S&P 500 index level and its companies' earnings are poised to get a boost next year amid stronger-than-projected US economic growth and policies aimed at lowering regulatory costs, Wells Fargo ...
Bloomberg
Cook Says Fed Should Cut Rates Over Time, Data Will Guide Pace
Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook said it will likely be appropriate for the central bank to cut interest rates toward a more neutral stance over time, citing inflation progress and a solid labor ...
Barron's
The Trump Trade Is Getting Hazy. Where the Market Goes Next.
The outlook for stocks starts 2025 strong but ends murky as potential tariffs, deportations, and Fed cuts muddy the water, Patti Domm writes.
Reuters
Investors lift US dollar, focus on Federal Reserve outlook
The U.S. dollar rose on Wednesday, renewing its post-election rally after a three-session decline as investors looked for more insight on the Federal Reserve's interest rate plans and U.S.
Reuters
Fed's Bowman calls for cautious approach on interest rates
Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman, among the U.S. central bank's most hawkish policymakers, on Wednesday called for a cautious approach to any further interest rate cuts, noting that inflation ...
The Hill
Economists expect Trump to place huge tariffs on Chinese imports: Survey
Economists are expecting President-elect Trump to place tariffs of around 40 percent on Chinese imports, according to a new survey from Reuters. In the survey of economists, 45 percent said the “level of tariffs imposed by Trump on Chinese goods” will be between 31 and 45 percent.
SCMP
China’s reforms should target ‘competitive’ state-ruled sectors: senior economic official
Han Wenxiu also stressed the need for breaking down market access barriers and the development of the private sector to advance Chinese-style modernisation.
Wall Street Journal
JGBs Fall, Tracking Declines in U.S. Treasurys
JGBs fall in the morning Tokyo session, tracking overnight price declines in U.S. Treasurys. Both JGBs and Treasurys tend to move in tandem. For today, focus is likely to be on BOJ Gov. Kazuo Ueda who ...
MT Newswires
US Equities Markets End Mixed Wednesday Ahead of Nvidia Earnings
US benchmark equity indexes ended mixed Wednesday as investors parsed the latest corporate earnings and awaited Nvidia's (NVDA) results. * Chip-making giant Nvidia is scheduled to report its fiscal Q3 ...
Markets Insider
An under-the-radar indicator shows global growth is stalling, research firm says
East Asian exports are decelerating. The data is a bellwether for the global economy and suggests global growth is slowing, BCA Research says.
Barron's
Treasury Yields Are Up After 'Very Weak' Auction
Treasury yields looked set to end the day higher after the latest 20-year bond auction. Government bonds worth $16 billion maturing in 20 years were auctioned by the Treasury at 1 p.m. on Wednesday.
Reuters
Fourth oil production vessel for Guyana to depart in Q1 2025
Guyana's fourth oil floating production storage and offloading (FPSO) facility is expected to depart for the South American country in the first quarter next year, the CEO of U.S. producer Hess John ...
Bloomberg
Asian Stocks to Slip as Nvidia Fails to Impress: Markets Wrap
Asian equities were set for early declines, reflecting a muted mood on Wall Street that was amplified by Nvidia Corp.’s lackluster revenue forecast. Treasury yields and the dollar rose, while Bitcoin ...
Reuters
Fed governors stake out competing views of inflation risk
Two Federal Reserve governors on Wednesday laid out competing visions of where U.S. monetary policy may be heading, with one citing ongoing concerns about inflation and another expressing confidence ...
U.S. News & World Report
Fed's Collins Sees More Rate Cuts Ahead for US Central Bank
FILE PHOTO: Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President Susan Collins stands behind the Jackson Lake Lodge in Jackson Hole, where the Kansas City Fed holds its annual economic symposium, in Wyoming, U.S.
Barron's
Boston Fed President Sees Risks of Both Inflation and Soft Labor Market
Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President Susan Collins sees risks of both an inflation rebound or a further softening of the U.S. labor market, and expects to continue to gradually lower interest ...
Associated Press
Japan records trade deficit for the fourth month straight despite export recovery
Japan racked up a trade deficit in October for the fourth month in a row, as a weak yen and the rising price of energy kept import costs high.
Forbes
Nvidia Rallies 4% Ahead Of Earnings: What To Expect From ‘Most Important’ Stock’s Report
Nvidia earnings “can dictate the near-term direction of the market,” according to Bank of America strategists.
CNBC
European Central Bank warns rising trade tensions increased risks to financial stability
The Financial Stability Review also said weak growth was now a bigger threat to the 20-nation euro zone than high inflation.
Associated Press
Congressional panel urges toughing the US-China trade relationship
A congressional panel has recommended that the U.S. toughen its trade relationship with Beijing. That would roll back a nearly 25-year-old decision that helped bring about China’s rapid economic ...
Global Macro Playbook
Fed Uncertain on Extent of Future Rate Cuts: Schmid

Federal Reserve interest rate cuts are a sign of growing confidence that inflation is heading towards the central bank’s 2% target, but it remains unclear how far rates can fall, Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid said on Tuesday in his remarks prepared for delivery to the Omaha

Bloomberg
Warsh Seen by Markets as Seasoned Candidate to Lead US Treasury
President-elect Donald Trump has yet to announce his pick for Treasury secretary, but Kevin Warsh — a former Federal Reserve board member well known to Wall Street — has at least won some backing in ...
Reuters
Trump to unleash nearly 40% tariffs on China in early 2025, hitting growth: Reuters poll
The United States could impose nearly 40% tariffs on imports from China early next year, a Reuters poll of economists showed, potentially slicing growth in the world's second-biggest economy by up to ...
Reuters
ECB warns of 'bubble' in AI stocks as funds deplete cash buffers
The European Central Bank warned on Wednesday about a "bubble" in stocks related to artificial intelligence (AI), which could burst abruptly if investors' rosy expectations are not met.
U.S. News & World Report
Oil Settles Flat as Sverdrup Field Restart Counters Geopolitical Concerns
Limiting oil's ascent, Equinor resumed partial production from the Johan Sverdrup field in the North Sea, Western Europe's largest oilfield, the day after a power outage there contributed to a 3% ...
Reuters
Oil steadies as Sverdrup field restart counters geopolitical concerns
Oil prices edged up on Tuesday, extending the previous day's rally driven by a halt in production at Norway's Johan Sverdrup oilfield, though investors remained cautious amid fears of an escalation in ...
Reuters
Japan exports rebound on China chipmaking demand but Trump tariff risks loom
Japan's exports expanded faster than expected in October, led by a pick-up in chip equipment demand in China, though fears persist over potential U.S. protectionist trade policies that could hamper ...
Financial Times
Swiss prosecutors accuse Trafigura of paying €5mn in bribes to Angolan official
Unsealed indictment alleges the company’s late founder, Claude Dauphin, masterminded the scheme
Reuters
Japan exports rebound on China chip-making demand; Trump tariff risks loom
Japan's exports expanded faster than expected in October led by a pick-up in chip equipment demand in China, though fears persist over potential U.S. protectionist trade policies that could hamper ...
Financial Times
Citadel Securities aims to become big player in Eurozone bond trading
Citadel Securities is aiming to become a “material” player in Eurozone government bond trading by next year after building a team of traders in Paris and securing valuable access to German debt ...
Reuters
Japan's exports expand in Oct; potential Trump tariffs dim outlook
Japan's exports rebounded in October, led by a pickup in chip equipment demand in China, data showed on Wednesday, suggesting that solid global demand was underpinning the country's still fragile ...
Bloomberg
US Treasury Flags Risks in Any New Cross-Border Payments Systems
A senior US Treasury official warned about potential risks to international financial stability and economic security from any cross-border payments systems that fail to adhere to standards aimed at ...
Reuters
Fed's Schmid says it is uncertain how far interest rates can fall
It remains uncertain how far interest rates can fall, though the initial reductions made by the U.S. central bank are a vote of confidence that inflation is returning to its 2% target, Kansas City Fed ...
The Economist
Conflict is driving investment in European defence firms
Venture investment is flooding into defence-tech startups in Europe as they fight to reshape modern warfare in 2025 ...
Global Macro Playbook
Corporate America on Edge as Trump's Tariff Threat Looms

Corporate executives are adopting a wait-and-see approach to President-elect Donald Trump's promised heavy tariffs on imports, but many have expressed significant concerns about the inflationary impact of such measures, reports Reuters.

Numerous major US corporations have addressed the tariff issue at recent investor events and conference calls, with

Kiplinger
How Lower Interest Rates Affect Your Finances
The Fed's rate cut will provide relief for some borrowers, but savers will have to work harder to get decent returns.
Associated Press
Japan records a trade deficit in October for a 4th straight month, despite export recovery
Japan racked up a trade deficit in October for the fourth month in a row, as a weak yen and the rising price of energy kept import costs high.
Wall Street Journal
Japan Exports Rebounded in October on China Shipment Recovery
Exports rose 3.1% in October from a year earlier, compared with a 1.7% drop in September. Economists polled by data provider FactSet had forecast a 3.9% increase. Shipments to Chi ...
Business Insider
Trump may face bond vigilantes amid concerns over inflation and the deficit
"It's not a foregone conclusion that we will have a financial crisis," Chang said.
Bloomberg
T. Rowe Cuts High-Grade Credit Bets on 2025 Inflation Volatility
T. Rowe Price Group Inc. is in risk-off form in parts of the credit markets, anticipating pressure on yields from higher inflation next year will make the stability of bank loans preferable to the ...
Reuters
Oil settles flat as escalation of Ukraine war counters Sverdrup field restart
Oil prices were broadly unchanged on Tuesday as signs of escalation of the Russia-Ukraine war kept investors cautious of supply disruptions, but the partial restart of production in Norway's Johan ...