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US Economy

Global Macro Playbook
US Retail Sales Tick Up as Economic Uncertainty Grows
US retail sales edged up in February, signaling a cautious consumer and growing economic uncertainty, Reuters reports. While the modest increase suggests continued economic growth, the slowdown in discretionary spending highlights mounting concerns.The Commerce Department's report, released Monday, indicates a moderate pace of economic expansion in the
CNBC
Trump policies 'promise' an economic downturn, says prominent forecaster in first-ever 'recession watch'
The UCLA Anderson Forecast, citing substantial changes to the economy from policies of the Trump administration, issued its first-ever "recession watch" on Tuesday.
Reuters
Japan manufacturers' mood sours in March over Trump tariffs, Chinese economy
Business sentiment among Japanese manufacturers in March worsened for the first time in three months into negative territory on concerns about U.S. tariff policies and weakness in China's economy, a ...
CNBC
Texas has 'stronger brand than New York' as Wall Street looks south, Gov. Greg Abbott says
The Texas governor spoke to CNBC after Nasdaq announced it was opening a regional headquarters in Dallas.
Global Macro Playbook
BofA Survey Reveals Record Drop in Investor Exposure to US Equities
According to a Bank of America Corp. survey, investors have drastically reduced their exposure to US equities in recent weeks, marking the largest drop on record, as reported by Bloomberg.The survey, conducted from March 7th to March 13th with 171 participants managing $426 billion in assets, revealed that fund
Global Macro Playbook
OECD: Trump's Tariffs to Stunt North American Growth and Fuel Inflation
The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) warns that President Donald Trump's tariff policies will significantly impede economic growth in the United States, Mexico, and Canada while simultaneously driving up inflation. This projection, as reported by Reuters, comes as Trump vows to move forward with a new
CNBC
Slower economic growth is likely ahead with risk of a recession rising, according to the CNBC Fed Survey
The 32 survey respondents, who include fund managers, strategists and analysts, raised the probability of recession to 36% from 23% in January.
Nikkei Asia
As Trump eyes reciprocal tariffs, Japan's red tape draws fire
WASHINGTON -- American businesses have flagged Japanese digital regulations and other nontariff barriers as key hurdles to trade as U.S. President Donald Trump prepares to announce reciprocal tariffs ...
Global Macro Playbook
NRF CEO: Consumers Hitting Pause, Choosing Savings Over Spending
After nearly five years of sustained growth, US consumers are showing signs of caution, choosing to save rather than spend amid a climate of economic uncertainty, according to Matthew Shay, CEO of the National Retail Federation (NRF). This shift, reflected in recent retail sales figures and consumer sentiment surveys, has
Global Macro Playbook
Krugman Warns Tariffs Risk Destabilizing Inflation Expectations
Are President Trump’s tariffs setting the stage for a sustained period of inflation, or are they just a temporary blip on the economic radar? Nobel laureate Paul Krugman warns that the risk of destabilizing inflation expectations is very real, even as recent data paints a mixed picture. While
CNBC
Retail sales increased 0.2% in February, though spending up less than expected
Retail sales were expected to show a 0.6% increase in February, according to the Dow Jones consensus estimate.
CNBC
Retail sales increased 0.2% in February, less than expected; ex-autos up 0.3%, meeting estimate
Retail sales were expected to show a 0.6% increase in February, according to the Dow Jones consensus estimate.
CNBC
U.S. and global economic outlooks cut by OECD as Trump's trade tariffs weigh on growth
"A series of recently announced trade policy measures will have implications for the economic outlook if sustained," the OECD said.
CNBC
OECD cuts U.S. and global economic outlooks as Trump's trade tariffs weigh on growth
The OECD on Monday released its latest economic outlook report.
Global Macro Playbook
Aluminum Squeeze: Tariffs and Power Constraints Threaten US Supply
The US aluminum market is facing a potential squeeze as renewed tariffs on imports collide with existing power constraints, raising concerns about supply and driving up prices. According to Jeff Currie, Chief Strategy Officer of Energy Pathways at Carlyle, the inability to onshore aluminum production due to its energy-intensive nature
CNBC
Treasury Secretary Bessent says White House is heading off a 'guaranteed' financial crisis
Bessent believes market pullbacks are benign, and Trump's pro-business policies will boost the economy in the long run.
CNBC
'See you in four years': Canada flexes economic muscle as tariff negotiations continue
Trump's plans for tariffs and comments about Canada becoming a state has enraged the country's consumers and politicians.
Financial Times
Will the Federal Reserve speed up US interest rate cuts this year?
Investors will focus on the Federal Reserve’s outlook for the US economy when the central bank finishes its two-day meeting to set interest rates on Wednesday. Markets overwhelmingly expect borrowing ...
CNBC
Trump’s Canadian tariffs are having a chilling effect on Vermont’s small business owners
The Green Mountain State's small businesses are getting caught in the tariff crossfire between the United States and Canada.
CNBC
Consumer sentiment slumps in March to lowest since 2022 as Trump tariffs spark more inflation worries
The University of Michigan's Survey of Consumers was expected to show a reading of 63.2 for March.
CNBC
Consumer sentiment drops in March to 57.9, according to University of Michigan survey, worse than expected
The University of Michigan's Survey of Consumers was expected to show a reading of 63.2 for March.
Global Macro Playbook
BOJ Expected to Hold Rates Steady, Weigh Risks of Trump's Trade War
The Bank of Japan (BOJ) is expected to keep interest rates unchanged at its upcoming policy meeting next week, as policymakers grapple with the growing economic risks posed by U.S. President Donald Trump's escalating trade war, specifically his recent imposition of 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum.
CNBC
Why this week's positive inflation reports won't look as good to the Fed
On the surface, February's inflation data released this week brought some encouraging news.
CNBC
Tariffs to add as much as $10,000 to the cost of the average new home, trade association says
"The tariffs act as a tax on American builders, home buyers and consumers," the National Association of Home Builders said.
CNBC
Egg prices are rapidly falling so far in March
Egg prices have become a key pressure point for consumers that are facing the simultaneous headwind of sticky inflation and President Donald Trump's tariffs.
CNBC
Treasury Secretary Bessent says a 'detox' period for the economy does not have to be a recession
The Trump administration is aiming for a "smooth transition" as it looks for ways to cut government spending.
CNBC
Treasury Secretary Bessent said the White House is focused on the 'real economy' and not concerned about 'a little' market volatility
essent said the administration is attentive to market moves, he predicted that both the economy and markets would prosper over time.
CNBC
U.S. tariffs could thrust Germany into recession, central bank governor says
Ongoing U.S. tariffs could push Europe's largest economy into a recession, German central bank President Joachim Nagel warned.
CNBC
One of Wall Street's biggest bulls cuts his S&P 500 outlook, blaming Trump's tariffs
Yardeni Research lowered its best-case S&P 500 target for 2025 nearly 9%, to 6,400 from 7,000, saying President Trump's tariffs raise the risk of stagflation.
CNBC
Wholesale price measure was flat in February, compared with expected increase
The producer price index was expected to increase 0.3% in February, according to the Dow Jones consensus forecast.