Global Economy: Latest News and Analysis

Global Macro Playbook
Fed Cuts Rates, But Mortgage Costs Climb Higher

Despite the Federal Reserve's efforts to lower interest rates and potentially make homes more affordable, mortgage costs continue to rise, reports the Wall Street Journal. This unexpected outcome is driven by several factors, including rising long-term Treasury yields and stubborn inflation.

Average 30-year mortgage rates have climbed to

Global Macro Playbook
US Economic Growth Revised Upward to 3.1% in Third Quarter

The US economy grew at a faster pace in the third quarter than previously estimated, fueled by stronger consumer spending and exports, reports Bloomberg.

Gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annualized rate of 3.1% in the July-to-September period, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis' third estimate

Global Macro Playbook
Japan 'Alarmed' by Yen's Slide, Warns of Intervention

The Japanese government is "alarmed" by recent sharp moves in the currency market and stands ready to intervene if speculative activity becomes excessive, top finance officials said on Friday, reports Reuters. This strong statement comes as the yen continues its rapid decline against the dollar.

The dollar reached

Global Macro Playbook
Singapore's MAS May Hold Off on Easing Despite Low Inflation

Singapore's Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) may hold off on easing monetary policy at its January review, despite slowing inflation, as the central bank seeks to assess the impact of incoming U.S. President Donald Trump's policies, analysts told Reuters.

This comes as data next week,

Global Macro Playbook
Malaysia Aims for Lower Inflation in 2025 as Subsidy Reform Takes Shape

Malaysia expects inflation to moderate towards the lower end of its target range in 2025, driven by a phased rollback of fuel subsidies, according to Economy Minister Rafizi Ramli, as reported by the Wall Street Journal. Ramli outlined a "surgical approach" to removing fuel subsidies, focusing on higher-income

Global Macro Playbook
Bank of Russia Holds Key Rate Steady Despite Rising Inflation

The Bank of Russia surprised economists by keeping its key interest rate at a record high of 21%, defying expectations of another significant hike to combat persistent inflation, reports Bloomberg.

The central bank's decision, announced Friday, comes despite inflation accelerating to 8.9% in November, more than double

Global Macro Playbook
UK Retail Sales Growth Stumbles in November Despite Budget Concerns

British retail sales grew at a weaker-than-expected 0.2% in November, according to official data released on Friday by the Office for National Statistics, reports Reuters. This follows a 0.7% drop in October, leading up to Chancellor Rachel Reeves' first budget.

Economists had anticipated a 0.5% monthly

Global Macro Playbook
China Lifts Four-Year Ban on Australian Rock Lobster Imports

China has lifted a four-year ban on Australian rock lobster imports, marking a significant step in the ongoing stabilization of relations between the two countries, reports the Wall Street Journal.

Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese announced Friday that China had notified Australia of the immediate resumption of live rock lobster

CNBC
Mercer's Olaolu Aganga gives Mercer's 2025 economic outlook
Olaolu Aganga, Mercer US chief investment officer, joins 'Closing Bell: Overtime' to discuss her 2025 economic and market outlook, as well as the growth for AI and Bitcoin.
Reuters
US consumer spending solid; inflation showing progress as year ends
U.S. consumer spending increased in November amid strong demand for a range of goods and services, underscoring the economy's resilience, which saw the Federal Reserve this week projecting fewer ...
Global Macro Playbook
Trump's Policies May Limit Fed Rate Cuts in 2025

The Federal Reserve's "hawkish" quarter-point rate cut, the third of 2024, signals a shift towards a more cautious approach to monetary policy, and President-elect Donald Trump's proposed policies could further limit the central bank's ability to lower rates in 2025, according to

Global Macro Playbook
Trump Threatens EU with Tariffs Over Oil and Gas Imports

President-elect Donald Trump has warned the European Union that it must significantly increase purchases of US oil and gas or face tariffs on a wide range of exports, including cars and machinery, reports Reuters.

Trump, who takes office on January 20, 2025, issued the ultimatum in a post on Truth

Global Macro Playbook
US Consumer Spending Remains Strong as Inflation Moderates

US consumer spending increased in November, signaling continued strength in the economy despite rising interest rates, reports Reuters. This resilience comes as the Federal Reserve this week projected fewer interest rate cuts in 2025 than previously anticipated.

The Commerce Department reported Friday that consumer spending rose 0.4% last month,

Global Macro Playbook
New Zealand Plunges into Recession, Prompting Calls for Deeper Rate Cuts

New Zealand's economy has fallen into recession, contracting far more sharply than anticipated in the third quarter, according to data released on Thursday by Stats NZ, as reported by Reuters. This dire outcome, exceeding even the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's (RBNZ) own pessimistic forecasts, is

Newsweek
US Economy Grows 3.1% in Q3 Thanks to Consumer Spending Boom
The U.S. economy grew at an annualized rate of 3.1 percent two, driven by a surge in consumer spending and exports, according to revised data from the Commerce Department released on Thursday.
Reuters
US economy eyes strong finish ahead of heightened policy uncertainty in 2025
The number of Americans filing new applications for jobless benefits fell more than expected last week, almost reversing the prior two weeks' increases and suggesting that a gradual labor market ...
Reuters
IMF says Fed taking appropriate action on rates given high US uncertainty
The International Monetary Fund views Wednesday's Federal Reserve interest rate cut and adoption of a more cautious outlook as appropriate given high U.S. economic uncertainty, IMF spokesperson Julie ...
Wall Street Journal
Copper Falls After Fed Signals Rate-Cut Slowdown
Gold prices extend losses in evening trade in Europe, after the latest U.S. data showed the economy grew faster than previously estimated, largely due to greater exports and robust consumer spending.
U.S. News & World Report
Trio of Economic Reports Show a Strong End to 2024
An upward revision to gross domestic product, a rise in home sales and a positive outlook for future growth on Thursday provided a dose of economic holiday cheer.
Reuters
Oil drops as dour economic outlook adds to oversupply concerns
Oil prices wobbled on Thursday after the U.S. Federal Reserve signalled it would slow the pace of interest rate cuts in 2025, which could hurt economic growth, reduce fuel demand and strengthen the ...
Global Macro Playbook
Trump-Backed Funding Plan Fails, Government Shutdown Looms

The Republican-led House of Representatives rejected a temporary funding plan backed by President-elect Donald Trump on Thursday, with just over 24 hours to spare before a US government shutdown, reports Bloomberg. The move capped an extraordinary two days in Washington that tested the incoming president's power.

Trump and

Reuters
US consumer spending rises in November; monthly inflation subsides
U.S. consumer spending increased in November, underscoring the economy's enduring strength, which prompted the Federal Reserve this week to project fewer interest rate cuts in 2025 than it had three ...
Financial Times
The global inflation battle is stalling and diverging
Investors had been expecting a continued normalisation of interest rates and inflation next year. The committee’s “dot plot” of rate projections for 2025, however, showed fewer cuts than in forecasts ...
Global Macro Playbook
UK Inflation Hits Eight-Month High, but Services Inflation Holds Steady

British inflation surged to an eight-month high in November, reaching 2.6%, as reported by Reuters. However, the rise in services prices, a key indicator of underlying inflationary pressures closely watched by the Bank of England (BoE), remained steady at 5.0%, offering some respite to the central bank.

The

Global Macro Playbook
Australia's Budget Deficit Widens as Government Increases Spending

Australia's government will face larger budget deficits in the coming years, driven by increased spending on healthcare, cost-of-living support, and veterans' care, reports Reuters. Despite trimming this year's deficit forecast, the Labor government is prioritizing public spending to navigate a slowing economy and upcoming elections.

U.S. News & World Report
Fed Cuts Rates for Now, But Suggests a Slower Easing Ahead as Economy Remains Strong
The Fed now sees inflation remaining somewhat higher, with the federal funds rate now projected to end 2025 at 3.9%. That is a half point higher than the central bank forecast in September and the ...
CNBC
Powell: The US economy isn't feeling the effects of geopolitical turmoil, but it remains a risk
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell fields questions from reporters after the central bank announced it had lowered its key interest rate by a quarter percentage point, marking the third consecutive ...
The Hill
US stocks fall sharply and Dow loses 1,100 points after the Fed hints at just 2 rate cuts for 2025
U.S. stocks tumbled to one of their worst days of the year after the Federal Reserve hinted Wednesday it may deliver fewer shots of adrenaline for the U.S. economy in 2025 than ...
Reuters
US single-family housing starts rebound; tariffs an obstacle
U.S. single-family homebuilding rebounded in November as the drag from hurricanes faded, but the threat of tariffs on imported goods and potential labor shortages from mass deportations of immigrants ...
Financial Times
Federal Reserve cuts rates but ‘hawkish’ forecast hits stocks and sends dollar jumping
US currency hits highest level in two years after central bank signals only half a percentage point of reductions in 2025
Reuters
Oil settles up after US crude stocks fall, Fed's 2025 outlook curbs gains
Oil prices settled higher on Wednesday after U.S. crude inventories fell and the U.S. Federal Reserve cut interest rates as expected, but gains were capped as the Fed signalled it would slow the pace ...
Wall Street Journal
Treasury Yields, Dollar Rise, Stocks Fall on Hawkish Fed
The U.S. dollar rose after the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points, as markets had priced, while making hawkish changes to its economic forecasts.
Financial Times
Donald Trump’s pledges seep into Federal Reserve’s outlook
Tariff threats partly to blame for ‘striking’ increase in central bank’s US inflation forecasts, say economists ...
Reuters
US stocks face headwind from rising yields after Fed signals fewer rate cuts
The rally in U.S. stocks is encountering a fresh hurdle -- a potentially problematic rise in Treasury yields as the Federal Reserve signals fewer interest rate cuts for 2025.
Reuters
Most Gulf central banks follow Fed lead and cut key interest rates
Most central banks of the Gulf Cooperation Council cut key interest rates on Wednesday, following the Federal Reserve's decision to reduce U.S. rates by a quarter of a percentage point. The Federal Reserve on Wednesday lowered the federal funds target rate range by 25 basis points (bps) to between 4.
Reuters
Trump, not yet in office, looms over global economy
The world's economic reckoning with the incoming Trump administration kicked off in earnest this week, with the U.S. Federal Reserve flagging fewer rate cuts and other leading central banks signaling ...
SCMP
US Fed’s hawkish rate-cut forecast slams China’s yuan
The offshore yuan weakened overnight and broke a key psychological level of 7.3 per US dollar, as the US Federal Reserve’s unexpectedly cautious forecast for rate cuts next year strengthened the dollar.
Wall Street Journal
Dollar Hovers Near 2-Year High After Fed Decision
The dollar was hovering close to a two-year high after the Fed signaled a slower pace of interest rate cuts next year.
Bloomberg
US GDP Revised Up to 3.1% on Stronger Consumer Spending, Exports
The US economy expanded at a faster pace in the third quarter than previously estimated, owing in part to to stronger consumer spending and exports.
Reuters
US weekly jobless claims fall more than expected
The number of Americans filing new applications for jobless benefits fell more than expected last week, consistent with a gradual cooling in labor market conditions.
MarketWatch
Stock Market Today: Dow futures higher after Fed outlook sparked 1,123-point rout
Lennar Corporation shares fell 9% in Thursday’s premarket session after the homebuilder blamed rising mortgage costs for a slowdown in its sales that saw it fall short of analysts expectations.
Reuters
US third-quarter economic growth revised higher
The U.S. economy grew faster than previously estimated in the third quarter, driven by robust consumer spending.
Bloomberg
US GDP Revised to 3.1% as Jobless Claims Fall
US gross domestic product increased at a 3.1% annualized rate in the third quarter, the third estimate of the figures from the Bureau of Economic Analysis showed. That compared to a previous ...
Reuters
Oil edges higher on falling US crude inventories, Fed's 2025 outlook limits gains
Oil prices rose slightly on Thursday, supported by falling U.S. crude inventories, though gains were limited after the U.S. Federal Reserve signalled it would slow the pace of interest rate cuts in ...
Reuters
US weekly jobless claims fall; third-quarter GDP growth revised higher
The number of Americans filing new applications for jobless benefits fell more than expected last week, reversing the prior week's jump and suggesting that a gradual labor market slowdown remained in ...
The Hill
Third-quarter GDP marked higher, jobless claims ease as US economy flexes muscle
Third-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) was revised higher Thursday following a substantially stronger projection for U.S. economic performance released Wednesday by the Federal Reserve. GDP ...
Global Macro Playbook
Australian Consumer Confidence Takes a Dip as Uncertainty Grows

Australia's consumer confidence dipped in December, reversing some of the gains made earlier in the year, as persistent inflation, elevated interest rates, and global economic uncertainty continue to weigh on household sentiment, reports Bloomberg.

The Westpac Banking Corp. consumer sentiment index fell 2% to 92.8 points in

Global Macro Playbook
US Manufacturing Growth Stalls in November

Despite the end of a crippling strike at Boeing, the US manufacturing sector showed only a modest rebound in November, according to data released by the Federal Reserve on Tuesday, reports Reuters. Factory output rose by just 0.2% last month, falling short of economist predictions for a 0.5%

Global Macro Playbook
Argentina's Economy Shows Signs of Life in Q3

Argentina's economy expanded for the first time in four quarters during the July to September period, signaling a potential turnaround after a prolonged period of contraction, reports Reuters. However, the economy still contracted on a yearly basis.

Gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 3.9% in the third