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Global Economy: Latest News and Analysis

Bloomberg
US Inflation Is Set to Back Fed Pause After Robust Jobs Data
Underlying US inflation probably cooled only a touch at the close of 2024 against a backdrop of a resilient job market and steadfast economy, supporting the Federal Reserve’s go-slow approach to ...
Financial Times
AI is taking the US in a strange new direction
It will drive the market to new heights and boost growth, but bring with it more political and social disruption ...
Reuters
US insurers slump as Los Angeles wildfire loss estimates hit $20 billion
U.S. insurance stocks slid on Friday as analysts estimated insured losses from the wildfires menacing Los Angeles could reach as high as $20 billion, potentially making it the costliest disaster in ...
Reuters
IMF chief sees steady world growth in 2025, continuing disinflation
The International Monetary Fund will forecast steady global growth and continuing disinflation when it releases an updated World Economic Outlook on Jan. 17, IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva ...
Reuters
Strong US job growth raises doubts about further Fed rate cuts
The U.S. job market again defied an anticipated slowdown, with firms adding more than a quarter of a million jobs in the last full month of Joe Biden's presidency and leaving Federal Reserve ...
Wall Street Journal
Strong U.S. Jobs Data Raise Risk of EUR/USD Hitting Parity This Month
The dollar rallied as U.S. December payrolls blew past the consensus estimate. The data raise the risk of the euro falling to parity against the dollar as early as this month, Monex said.
Reuters
UN predicts world economic growth to remain at 2.8% in 2025
Global economic growth is projected to remain at 2.8% in 2025, unchanged from 2024, held back by the top two economies, the U.S. and China, according to a United Nations report released on Thursday.
Morningstar
UN Raises Global Growth Forecast, But Warns That Tariff Rises Could Revive Inflation
But the UN warned that growth could be weaker if rising trade barriers stall the decline in inflation, and cause leading central banks to hold back on rate cuts. Donald Trump, who is set to become U.S ...
Global Macro Playbook
Japanese Household Spending Stagnates as Inflation Bites

Japanese household spending showed signs of improvement in November, though the broader consumption trend remains soft, Reuters reports, citing government data released Friday.

The trend is attributed to persistent inflationary pressures. Consumer spending decreased by 0.4% year-on-year, slightly better than the anticipated 0.6% decline. However, on a seasonally

InvestmentNews
Anxious markets weak ahead of US payroll data
Financial markets have been volatile at the start of the year, with US yields marching higher as investors moderated their view on the pace of Federal Reserve easing. The anxiety comes as signals of a ...
SCMP
Chinese cancel Thai holidays as actor Wang Xing’s kidnapping fuels safety fears
Wang, a relatively unknown actor in China until his disappearance went viral, was reported missing after travelling to the popular tourist destination for a shoot. Thai authoritie ...
Reuters
US job growth beats expectations in December; unemployment rate falls to 4.1%
U.S. job growth unexpectedly accelerated in December while the unemployment rate fell to 4.1% as the labor market ended the year on a solid footing, reinforcing the Federal Reserve's cautious approach ...
Reuters
US job growth blows away expectations in December; unemployment rate falls to 4.1%
U.S. job growth unexpectedly accelerated in December while the unemployment rate fell to 4.1% as the labor market ended the year on a solid footing, reinforcing the Federal Reserve's cautious approach ...
Reuters
US labor market exits 2024 with strong job gains, drop in unemployment rate
U.S. job growth unexpectedly accelerated in December while the unemployment rate fell to 4.1% as the labor market ended the year on a solid footing, reinforcing views that the Federal Reserve would ...
Reuters
US dollar bounces back as strong jobs data backs Fed rate-cut pause
The U.S. dollar rallied across the board on Friday after data showed the world's largest economy created more jobs than expected last month, reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve will pause its rate-cutting cycle at its policy meeting later this month.
Global Macro Playbook
Brazil's Industrial Output Suffers Second Consecutive Monthly Decline

Brazil's industrial sector experienced its second consecutive monthly decline in November, according to data released Wednesday and reported by Reuters. This indicates a potential cooling of the economy as the central bank implements a restrictive monetary policy to combat inflation.

Industrial production decreased by 0.6% in November

Reuters
US weekly jobless claims at 11-month low amid labor market stability
The number of Americans filing new applications for unemployment benefits fell to an 11-month low last week, pointing to a stable labor market, though a slowdown in hiring has led some laid-off ...
Financial Times
The looming battles over US economic policy thinking
It’s going to be an exciting year in economics. Read on for my overview of the looming battles of ideas in US economic policy thinking. The latest issue of Foreign Affairs features an essay by ...
Reuters
Canadian dollar seen higher but upside limited by US tariff threat: Reuters poll
The Canadian dollar is set to recoup only a small part of its recent losses in the coming year as expected U.S. trade tariffs cloud the economic outlook, offsetting investor optimism around a likely ...
Reuters
Pound slides to 14-month low as gilt pain intensifies
Sterling was last down 0.6% at $1.2295, having touched its lowest since November 2023 earlier in the day, while the cost of hedging against bigger price swings over the coming month jumped to its high ...
Reuters
Forget American Exceptionalism, it’s a Tri Polar World
In 2024, the watchword in financial markets was “American exceptionalism”, as the U.S. economy and markets left the rest of the world in the dust. But as the calendar turns, it may now be time to ...
Global Macro Playbook
Australian Retail Sales Growth Stalls, Fueling Rate Cut Expectations

Australian retail sales growth slowed in November, increasing by less than expected despite pre-Christmas and Black Friday discounts, Bloomberg reports. This underscores the cautious consumer sentiment and strengthens the case for an interest rate cut in the near future.

Retail sales rose 0.8% month-over-month, falling short of the projected

Global Macro Playbook
China's Inflation Nears Zero Despite Stimulus Efforts

China's consumer inflation weakened further in December, ending the year near zero and extending a four-month deceleration, Bloomberg reports. This setback dampens the impact of government stimulus aimed at combating deflation and boosting demand.

The consumer price index (CPI) rose just 0.1% year-on-year, matching the median forecast

Reuters
US job openings rise unexpectedly to 8.1 million in November, hiring falls
US job openings rose unexpectedly in November, showing companies are still looking for workers even as the labour market has cooled overall.
Reuters
Oil prices up on tighter OPEC supply, US jobs data
Oil prices rose on Wednesday as supplies from Russia and OPEC members tightened, while data showing an unexpected increase in U.S. jobs openings pointed to expanding economic activity and consequent ...
Reuters
Rupee to face pressure as upbeat US data reignites dollar uptrend
The Indian rupee is likely to open weaker on Wednesday after upbeat U.S. economic data lifted U.S. bond yields, prompting the dollar to resume its uptrend.
Reuters
Asian stocks slip, dollar bolstered by US rate outlook
Asian stocks drifted lower on Wednesday, with a robust dollar keeping the yen pinned near six-month lows as traders wagered the Federal Reserve will likely be slow in cutting rates after data showed ...
Reuters
Stocks slip, dollar boosted by US rate outlook
Global stocks slid, with European shares set for a weak open on Wednesday as worries over U.S. inflation resurfaced and bond yields spiked, boosting the dollar and keeping the yen, yuan and euro near ...
Reuters
US labor market stable as job openings rise, hiring eases in November
U.S. job openings unexpectedly increased in November while hiring softened, suggesting the labor market continued to slow at a pace that probably does not require the Federal Reserve to be in a rush ...
Bloomberg
US Economy: Weekly Jobless Claims Sink to 201,000
Applications for US unemployment benefits fell by 10,000 to 201,000 last week, falling to the lowest since February. Michael McKee reports on Bloomberg Television.
Reuters
US weekly jobless claims fall to 11-month low
The number of Americans filing new applications for unemployment benefits fell to an 11-month low last week, pointing to a stable labor market, though a slowdown in hiring has led some laid-off ...
Reuters
Oil prices ease as weak economic data offsets higher US winter storm heating demand
Oil prices edged up to a 12-week high on Monday as a winter storm boosted demand for energy to heat U.S. homes and businesses, and on support from a weaker U.S. dollar and expectations of tighter ...
Bloomberg
Europe’s Biggest Equity Bull Says the Region Can Beat US in 2025
European equities face a much brighter outlook in 2025 amid improving economic prospects and a low bar for corporate earnings after badly lagging US stocks last year, according to strategists at ...
Reuters
US service sector growth picks up; input prices gauge highest in nearly two years
U.S. services sector activity accelerated in December, but a surge in a measure of prices paid for inputs to near a two-year high pointed to elevated inflation, consistent with the Federal Reserve's ...
Reuters
US job openings increase in November; hiring falls
U.S. job openings unexpectedly increased in November, but a softening in hiring pointed to a slowing labor market.
Financial Times
Inflation and interest rates tracker: see how your country compares
Simply sign up to the Global Economy myFT Digest -- delivered directly to your inbox. Central banks around the world are expected to lower borrowing costs as global inflation eases from the multi ...
Reuters
Macro Matters | News Reshaping The Global Economy | Reuters
Macro Matterscategory Vietnam's 2024 GDP growth accelerates to 7.09%, driven by strong exports January 6, 2025 Macro Matterscategory India's services sector ended 2024 on a strong footing, PMI ...
Bloomberg
Bond Traders See Fraught Year Ahead as Trump Shadows Outlook
Bond traders are entering the new year with diminished expectations as the resilient US economy and President-elect Donald Trump’s tax-cut and tariff policies threaten to keep Treasuries under ...
Global Macro Playbook
US Job Growth Cools But Remains Healthy: Bloomberg

US employers likely moderated hiring in December, concluding a year of steady job growth, according to a Bloomberg report. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg predict approximately 160,000 jobs were added, putting the average monthly job growth for 2024 near 180,000—a decline from previous years but still indicative

Global Macro Playbook
Repeat Defaults Hit Record High in Leveraged Loan Market: JPMorgan

A record number of companies repeatedly defaulted on their debt in 2024, according to a JPMorgan Chase & Co. report cited by Bloomberg. This trend underscores the continuing strain on corporate balance sheets, particularly within the leveraged loan market where interest rates are increasing.

The JPMorgan report reveals that roughly

Global Macro Playbook
US Manufacturing Shows Signs of Life as PMI Hits Nine-Month High

The US manufacturing sector showed signs of improvement in December, as reported by Reuters, citing data released by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) on Friday.

According to the latest release, the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose to 49.3, its highest level since March. This represents a notable

Reuters
US jobs report poses first big stocks test of 2025
The stock market faces its first major test of the year in the coming week, with investors counting on the U.S. jobs report to show a stable but not overheated economy that underpins expectations for ...
Financial Times
Top Fed official warns of US inflation risk after Donald Trump takes power
A top Federal Reserve official has warned about the threat of resurgent US inflation after Donald Trump takes power, even as he forecast solid growth for the world’s largest economy overall.
Reuters
US manufacturing PMI rises to nine-month high, but challenges loom
U.S. manufacturing moved closer to recovery in December, with production rebounding and new orders rising further, but the outlook remains uncertain amid the threat of higher tariffs that could raise ...
Reuters
US weekly jobless claims hit eight-month low as labor market remains resilient
The number of Americans filing new applications for unemployment benefits dropped to an eight-month low last week, pointing to low layoffs at the end of 2024 and consistent with a healthy labor market ...
Financial Times
UK economic growth will lag US in 2025, say economists
Higher government and consumer spending will restore growth in the UK economy in 2025, helping it to outperform European peers that are more exposed to the threat of political instability and new ...
Reuters
Dollar headed for best week since November on US rates, economic outlook
The dollar was on track for its best weekly performance in over a month on Friday, underpinned by expectations of fewer Federal Reserve rate cuts this year and the view that the U.S. economy will ...
Reuters
Dollar set for best week since November on US rates, economic outlook
The dollar was on track for its best weekly performance in over a month on Friday, underpinned by expectations of fewer Federal Reserve rate cuts this year and the view that the U.S. economy will ...
Reuters
Dollar set to end week on a high on US rates and economic outlook
The dollar was on track for its strongest weekly performance since early December on Friday, propped up by expectations that the U.S. economy will continue to outperform its peers globally this year ...