Global Economy: Latest News and Analysis

MT Newswires
Wells Fargo Raises S&P 500 Target Level for Next Year Amid Economic Strength, Policy Changes
The S&P 500 index level and its companies' earnings are poised to get a boost next year amid stronger-than-projected US economic growth and policies aimed at lowering regulatory costs, Wells Fargo ...
Global Macro Playbook
Corporate America on Edge as Trump's Tariff Threat Looms

Corporate executives are adopting a wait-and-see approach to President-elect Donald Trump's promised heavy tariffs on imports, but many have expressed significant concerns about the inflationary impact of such measures, reports Reuters.

Numerous major US corporations have addressed the tariff issue at recent investor events and conference calls, with

The Economist
What Donald Trump’s election means for the global economy
Donald Trump’s trade plan for 2025 would hit China and Mexico hard as well as cause global damage. But he will struggle to implement it in full ...
Reuters
PIMCO bullish on stocks on US soft landing hopes, cautious on inflation
An optimistic outlook on the U.S. economy is prompting U.S. bond giant PIMCO to favor stocks and some other risk assets, while seeking protection against inflation as the new U.S. government could ...
Business Insider
Why one veteran economist is doubling down on his 2025 recession call after Trump's victory
The economy is flashing a rare recession warning only seen four times in the last century, according to top economist Steve Hanke.
Business Insider
Millennials having fewer kids could be a drag on the economy for the next decade
Millennials aren't having as many kids as previous generations, and that fact could end up dragging down economic growth for more than a decade. That may not faze some child-free millennials, who ...
Bloomberg
Goldman Cuts Australia Economic Outlook on Trump Tariff Impact
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. lowered its forecast for Australia’s economic growth in 2025, pointing to likely “negative spillovers” from the incoming Trump administration’s expected increase in tariffs on ...
Global Macro Playbook
BOJ Governor Sees Increased Likelihood of Wage-Driven Inflation

Bank of Japan (BOJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda expressed optimism on Monday about Japan's progress toward achieving sustained inflation driven by rising wages, signaling that conditions for future interest rate hikes are gradually improving, as reported by Reuters.

In a speech to business leaders in Nagoya, Ueda stated, "

Reuters
Thai Q3 GDP growth beats forecast, but risks seen ahead
Thailand’s economy beat forecasts with its fastest growth in two years in the July-September quarter due to stronger investment, tourism and exports, but officials and analysts saw increased ...
Global Macro Playbook
Bank of England Governor Calls for Stronger UK-EU Ties Post-Brexit

Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey has issued a call for the UK to "rebuild relations" with the European Union, marking his strongest public comments yet on the impact of Brexit, reports the BBC. While emphasizing that he takes "no position on Brexit per se," Bailey

Global Macro Playbook
US Retail Sales Rise in October, Signaling Continued Consumer Strength

Americans increased their spending at retail stores in October, indicating sustained consumer demand and driving steady economic growth, reports The Associated Press.

Retail sales rose 0.4% from September to October, according to the Commerce Department's Friday report. While this represents a moderation from September's robust

Bloomberg
Mary Lovely on Possible Tariff Effects on US Economy
Mary Lovely, Senior Fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, weighs in on President Biden meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping and if anything can be accomplished from their ...
Markets Insider
The more Americans who take Ozempic, the faster the US economy could grow, Goldman Sachs says
With the US obesity rate hovering at around 40%, tens of millions of Americans could take GLP-1 drugs over the next few years.
Associated Press
Moody’s downgrades Mexican government’s outlook to ‘negative’ over weakening of judiciary and debt
Mexico's president has lashed out at Moody’s ratings service after it downgraded the Mexican government’s debt outlook to “negative.” ...
Bloomberg
Charting the Global Economy: US Inflation Progress Stalls
US inflation is proving stubborn while consumer spending shows scant signs of any concerning slowdown, laying the groundwork for a more cautious approach to interest-rate cuts from the Federal Reserve ...
Bloomberg
Global Economy Is Failing on Vow to Use Energy More Efficiently
Though it’s more mundane than scaling up renewables or electrifying transportation, rapid improvements in how efficiently the global economy uses energy are seen as vital if the world has any chance ...
Forbes
The Productivity Tightrope: 2 Labor Force Trends That Could Slow The US Economy
Balancing labor supply & employer demand has implications for workers, families, communities, companies, & govt. Economists & policymakers deter try maintain balance.
Bloomberg
Powell Says Strong US Economy Means No Rush to Cut Rates
Good morning. Jerome Powell isn’t in a hurry to lower US interest rates. Rachel Reeves says that the UK’s crackdown on banks went too far. And shop for thrifty to expensive watches with Bloomberg ...
Business Insider
China's weak economy and record US production will lead to a surplus of one million barrels of oil a day next year, IEA says
Oil markets are facing a supply glut, with non-OPEC producers on track expand production by 1.5 million barrels of oil a day, the IEA said, ...
Reuters
EU Commission sees euro zone economy picking up, warns of US protectionism
By Jan Strupczewski BRUSSELS (Reuters) -Euro zone economic growth will pick up in 2025 and 2026 and inflation will slow, the European Commission forecast on Friday, but warned a protectionist U.S.
Forbes
The Productivity Tightrope: Two Labor Force Trends That Could Slow The US Economy
Balancing labor supply & employer demand has implications for workers, families, communities, companies, & govt. Economists & policymakers deter try maintain balance.
Associated Press
Moody's Downgrades Mexican Government's Outlook to 'Negative' Over Weakening of Judiciary and Debt
Mexico's president has lashed out at Moody’s ratings service after it downgraded the Mexican government’s debt outlook to “negative.” ...
CNBC
India’s central bank chief warns growing risk of global inflation returning
Central banks have managed to engineer a soft landing, but there is still a risk of global inflation returning, according to India's central bank chief.
Global Macro Playbook
Templeton Joins JPMorgan, T. Rowe in Warning of Higher Treasury Yields

Investment firms are warning of a potential surge in US Treasury yields, with some analysts predicting the 10-year yield could reach 5% or higher, reports Bloomberg.

This comes amid growing concerns about the expanding US government debt burden, fueled by a multi-trillion dollar deficit and exacerbated by the potential impact

Reuters
ECB's Villeroy: Trump's economic agenda risks global economy, return of inflation
PARIS, Nov 13 (Reuters) - U.S. President-elect Donald Trump's economic agenda risks returning inflation to the United States and hurting economic growth worldwide, Bank of France head and European ...
Global Macro Playbook
JGB Yields Edge Up, Investors Await US & Japan Economic Signals

Japanese government bond (JGB) yields edged higher on Tuesday, tracking a rise in US Treasury yields during Asian trading hours, according to Reuters. Investors are awaiting fresh signals on the economic outlooks for both the United States and Japan.

The 10-year JGB yield rose 0.5 basis point (bps) to

Global Macro Playbook
China's Record Trade Surplus May Fuel Tensions

China's trade surplus is on track to reach a record-breaking $1 trillion this year, a development that could exacerbate trade tensions with the US and other major economies, reports Bloomberg.

The widening trade surplus, which reached $785 billion in the first ten months of 2024, represents a 16%

The Hill
The Trump 2.0 trade doctrine: Making the global economy unpredictable again?
The Fed’s decisions directly impact global economy, affecting everything from bond yields to currency values. If financial markets sense that the Fed’s autonomy is at risk, the consequences could be ...
Global Macro Playbook
Trump and Bond Yields

Donald Trump's decisive victory in the presidential race, dubbed by some as the "Super Bowl of Global Politics," triggered mixed reactions across financial markets. While stock indices hit record highs, the US dollar surged, and Bitcoin soared, the bond market responded with a resounding sell-off.

This

Global Macro Playbook
US Disinflation Stalls, Highlighting Tough Road Ahead

US inflation likely remained stagnant in October, highlighting the uneven pace of easing price pressures as the Federal Reserve aims to return inflation to its target, reports Bloomberg.

The core consumer price index (CPI), which excludes food and energy, is projected to have risen at the same pace on both

Global Macro Playbook
Egypt's Inflation Inches Up to 26.5% in October

Egypt's headline inflation edged up slightly in October, reaching 26.5% compared to 26.4% in September, according to data released by the statistics agency CAPMAS on Sunday.

The increase, while modest, marks the third consecutive month of rising inflation. The median forecast of 17 analysts had predicted

Global Macro Playbook
BOJ Policymakers Divided on Pace of Rate Hike

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) remains divided on the appropriate timing for raising interest rates, according to a summary of opinions from its October policy meeting released on Monday, reports Reuters.

Several board members expressed concern about the potential for renewed market volatility if rates are raised too quickly. They

U.S. News & World Report
European Shares Log Third Week of Declines on China, Tariff Jitters
(Reuters) -Europe's benchmark STOXX 600 logged its third consecutive week of declines on Friday, hurt by underwhelming stimulus measures from China as well as concerns about tariffs under a Trump ...
Global Macro Playbook
Turkey Raises Inflation Forecasts, Aligning With Market Expectations

Turkey's central bank has revised its inflation forecasts for 2024 and 2025 upwards, bringing them closer to market expectations, reports Bloomberg. This move follows two consecutive months of price gains exceeding initial estimates.

Officials now project inflation to reach 44% at the end of this year and 21%

Wall Street Journal
Europe’s Economy Faces Sink-or-Swim Moment as Trump Returns
Wall Street’s verdict is clear: A second Trump presidency is likely to deliver a blow to an export-dependent European Union that is struggling with sclerotic economic growth and ever-multiplying ...
MarketWatch
Goldman Sachs cuts European growth and earnings forecasts as Trump tariffs loom
The Trump regime will hit European economic growth and reduce company earnings, though the continent’s defense sector may prosper. That’s according to a team of Goldman Sachs strategists led by ...
Bloomberg
Charting the Global Economy: Trump Win Reverberates Around the World
Donald Trump’s decisive win of the US presidential election has world leaders already preparing for how his next administration will shape the global economy.In China, factories ramped up shipments ...
Global Macro Playbook
Fed Cuts Rates But Trump's Re-Election Casts Shadow Over Future Policy

The Federal Reserve on Thursday lowered interest rates by a quarter percentage point, marking the second consecutive rate cut as the central bank continues to support the US economy. However, the re-election of Donald Trump, known for his criticism of the Fed and his potential to influence monetary policy, has

The New York Times
The Election’s Other Biggest Losers? Economists.
Twenty-three Nobel laureates warned last month that Donald Trump’s agenda would “lead to higher prices, larger deficits and greater inequality.” I think they were right. But voters utterly ignored ...
Bloomberg
Gold Heads for Weekly Drop as Traders Weigh Trump, Fed Outlook
Gold fell at the end of a volatile week’s trading, as investors assessed the path ahead for US rates and the implications of Donald ... noting recent indicators suggested the economy was still ...
Global Macro Playbook
China Unveils $837 Billion Debt Swap to Tackle Local Government Risks

China is taking a major step to address the growing risk posed by local government debt, announcing a plan to swap 6 trillion yuan ($837.7 billion) in off-balance sheet or "hidden" debt for bonds over the next three years, reports Reuters.

The move comes as China'

SCMP
China’s stimulus strategy, while not ‘whatever it takes’, is seen as long and intact
Beijing’s reluctance to embrace strong measures to rapidly turn the tide of its sluggish economy keeps markets, consumers and analysts waiting in wonder.
Global Macro Playbook
Japan's Wage Growth Strengthens Case for BOJ Rate Hike

Japanese workers' base salaries saw their largest increase in over three decades in September, bolstering the Bank of Japan's (BOJ) view that the economy is on a recovery path and supporting the case for a rate hike in the coming months, reports Bloomberg.

The pace of gains

Reuters
US farm producers brace for hit to exports to China in Trump administration
SHANGHAI: US agriculture producers are bracing for the prospect of a fresh trade war under US President-elect Donald Trump again hitting exports of farm goods to China, but they said while any new ...
SCMP
China to stick with ‘around 5%’ GDP target in 2025 despite Trump tariff threat: economist
China is expected to set its economic growth target again at “around 5 per cent” in 2025 despite the looming threat of increased tariffs under Donald Trump’s second term as US president, as Beijing ...
SCMP
China adds 6 trillion yuan in hidden debt relief, pledges more stimulus – as it happened
China’s top legislative body finishes week-long session as anticipation for fiscal stimulus mounts in wake of Trump triumph.
SCMP
US-China ties in ‘more challenging place’ after Trump win: Singapore’s PM Wong
The two major powers have ‘consequential decisions’ that they will have to make with consequences on the future global order.
SCMP
Fed rate cut gives China room to move as Beijing eyes more economic stimulus
US Federal Reserve lowered its benchmark rate less than a day before China is expected to release its latest economic stimulus plan.
Global Macro Playbook
Japan Intervened Twice in Third Quarter to Prop Up Yen

The Japanese government intervened in the foreign exchange market twice during the third quarter, spending a combined ¥5.54 trillion ($36.4 billion) to support the yen, reports Bloomberg. The interventions, carried out on July 11 and 12, were aimed at stemming the yen's slide against the