Global Economy: Latest News and Analysis

Global Macro Playbook
JGB Yields Edge Up, Investors Await US & Japan Economic Signals

Japanese government bond (JGB) yields edged higher on Tuesday, tracking a rise in US Treasury yields during Asian trading hours, according to Reuters. Investors are awaiting fresh signals on the economic outlooks for both the United States and Japan.

The 10-year JGB yield rose 0.5 basis point (bps) to

Global Macro Playbook
China's Record Trade Surplus May Fuel Tensions

China's trade surplus is on track to reach a record-breaking $1 trillion this year, a development that could exacerbate trade tensions with the US and other major economies, reports Bloomberg.

The widening trade surplus, which reached $785 billion in the first ten months of 2024, represents a 16%

The Hill
The Trump 2.0 trade doctrine: Making the global economy unpredictable again?
The Fed’s decisions directly impact global economy, affecting everything from bond yields to currency values. If financial markets sense that the Fed’s autonomy is at risk, the consequences could be ...
Global Macro Playbook
Trump and Bond Yields

Donald Trump's decisive victory in the presidential race, dubbed by some as the "Super Bowl of Global Politics," triggered mixed reactions across financial markets. While stock indices hit record highs, the US dollar surged, and Bitcoin soared, the bond market responded with a resounding sell-off.

This

Global Macro Playbook
US Disinflation Stalls, Highlighting Tough Road Ahead

US inflation likely remained stagnant in October, highlighting the uneven pace of easing price pressures as the Federal Reserve aims to return inflation to its target, reports Bloomberg.

The core consumer price index (CPI), which excludes food and energy, is projected to have risen at the same pace on both

Global Macro Playbook
Egypt's Inflation Inches Up to 26.5% in October

Egypt's headline inflation edged up slightly in October, reaching 26.5% compared to 26.4% in September, according to data released by the statistics agency CAPMAS on Sunday.

The increase, while modest, marks the third consecutive month of rising inflation. The median forecast of 17 analysts had predicted

Global Macro Playbook
BOJ Policymakers Divided on Pace of Rate Hike

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) remains divided on the appropriate timing for raising interest rates, according to a summary of opinions from its October policy meeting released on Monday, reports Reuters.

Several board members expressed concern about the potential for renewed market volatility if rates are raised too quickly. They

U.S. News & World Report
European Shares Log Third Week of Declines on China, Tariff Jitters
(Reuters) -Europe's benchmark STOXX 600 logged its third consecutive week of declines on Friday, hurt by underwhelming stimulus measures from China as well as concerns about tariffs under a Trump ...
Global Macro Playbook
Turkey Raises Inflation Forecasts, Aligning With Market Expectations

Turkey's central bank has revised its inflation forecasts for 2024 and 2025 upwards, bringing them closer to market expectations, reports Bloomberg. This move follows two consecutive months of price gains exceeding initial estimates.

Officials now project inflation to reach 44% at the end of this year and 21%

Wall Street Journal
Europe’s Economy Faces Sink-or-Swim Moment as Trump Returns
Wall Street’s verdict is clear: A second Trump presidency is likely to deliver a blow to an export-dependent European Union that is struggling with sclerotic economic growth and ever-multiplying ...
MarketWatch
Goldman Sachs cuts European growth and earnings forecasts as Trump tariffs loom
The Trump regime will hit European economic growth and reduce company earnings, though the continent’s defense sector may prosper. That’s according to a team of Goldman Sachs strategists led by ...
Bloomberg
Charting the Global Economy: Trump Win Reverberates Around the World
Donald Trump’s decisive win of the US presidential election has world leaders already preparing for how his next administration will shape the global economy.In China, factories ramped up shipments ...
Global Macro Playbook
Fed Cuts Rates But Trump's Re-Election Casts Shadow Over Future Policy

The Federal Reserve on Thursday lowered interest rates by a quarter percentage point, marking the second consecutive rate cut as the central bank continues to support the US economy. However, the re-election of Donald Trump, known for his criticism of the Fed and his potential to influence monetary policy, has

The New York Times
The Election’s Other Biggest Losers? Economists.
Twenty-three Nobel laureates warned last month that Donald Trump’s agenda would “lead to higher prices, larger deficits and greater inequality.” I think they were right. But voters utterly ignored ...
Bloomberg
Gold Heads for Weekly Drop as Traders Weigh Trump, Fed Outlook
Gold fell at the end of a volatile week’s trading, as investors assessed the path ahead for US rates and the implications of Donald ... noting recent indicators suggested the economy was still ...
Global Macro Playbook
China Unveils $837 Billion Debt Swap to Tackle Local Government Risks

China is taking a major step to address the growing risk posed by local government debt, announcing a plan to swap 6 trillion yuan ($837.7 billion) in off-balance sheet or "hidden" debt for bonds over the next three years, reports Reuters.

The move comes as China'

SCMP
China’s stimulus strategy, while not ‘whatever it takes’, is seen as long and intact
Beijing’s reluctance to embrace strong measures to rapidly turn the tide of its sluggish economy keeps markets, consumers and analysts waiting in wonder.
Global Macro Playbook
Japan's Wage Growth Strengthens Case for BOJ Rate Hike

Japanese workers' base salaries saw their largest increase in over three decades in September, bolstering the Bank of Japan's (BOJ) view that the economy is on a recovery path and supporting the case for a rate hike in the coming months, reports Bloomberg.

The pace of gains

Reuters
US farm producers brace for hit to exports to China in Trump administration
SHANGHAI: US agriculture producers are bracing for the prospect of a fresh trade war under US President-elect Donald Trump again hitting exports of farm goods to China, but they said while any new ...
SCMP
China to stick with ‘around 5%’ GDP target in 2025 despite Trump tariff threat: economist
China is expected to set its economic growth target again at “around 5 per cent” in 2025 despite the looming threat of increased tariffs under Donald Trump’s second term as US president, as Beijing ...
SCMP
China adds 6 trillion yuan in hidden debt relief, pledges more stimulus – as it happened
China’s top legislative body finishes week-long session as anticipation for fiscal stimulus mounts in wake of Trump triumph.
SCMP
US-China ties in ‘more challenging place’ after Trump win: Singapore’s PM Wong
The two major powers have ‘consequential decisions’ that they will have to make with consequences on the future global order.
SCMP
Fed rate cut gives China room to move as Beijing eyes more economic stimulus
US Federal Reserve lowered its benchmark rate less than a day before China is expected to release its latest economic stimulus plan.
Global Macro Playbook
Japan Intervened Twice in Third Quarter to Prop Up Yen

The Japanese government intervened in the foreign exchange market twice during the third quarter, spending a combined ¥5.54 trillion ($36.4 billion) to support the yen, reports Bloomberg. The interventions, carried out on July 11 and 12, were aimed at stemming the yen's slide against the

Reuters
Japan inflation-adjusted wages slip in Sept as price rises offset pay growth
Japan's inflation-adjusted wages fell for the second straight month in September, government data showed on Thursday, underlining the negative effect of persistently elevated prices on nominal pay.
Markets Insider
Trump's presidency will hurt Europe's economic growth amid renewed trade tensions, Goldman Sachs says
Europe could face a 0.5% hit to GDP in a second Trump presidency amid increased trade policy uncertainty and more defense spending, Goldman Sachs says.
Reuters
Analysis-For Europe's markets, Trump's return spells euro pain but bond gains
By Yoruk Bahceli and Lucy Raitano LONDON (Reuters) -Investors are bracing for further economic pain in Europe that could deepen euro losses and hurt its stocks, as a second Donald Trump presidency ...
Associated Press
China is bracing for fresh tensions with Trump over trade, tech and Taiwan
As U.S. President-elect Donald Trump prepares for his second term in office, China is bracing for unpredictability in its ties with the United States.
Reuters
Why China's economy is more vulnerable to Trump tariffs this time
A threat by Donald Trump, who has been elected as the next U.S. president, to impose 60% tariffs on U.S. imports of Chinese goods poses major growth risks for the world's second-largest economy. Not ...
SCMP
Will gold gain lustre in wake of Trump’s election win?
Price falls as investors take profits from earlier gains, but longer-term prospects are bullish due to trade and inflation uncertainties.