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Commentary

Equities Rallied, Rates Jumped, and Spikes in Energy

Author: Bruce Liegel Last week's price action in equities was quite strong, with the corrective rally back to the lower trend line of the channel met with resistance following the mixed non-farm payrolls employment report. As discussed a few weeks ago, the breakout of the trend channel in

Rates Made New Highs and Energy Rallied

Author: Bruce Liegel The dollar index has held the key support near 100, marked by the horizontal blue line on Chart 1 below. The dollar has had a nice 4% or so bounce off this support, starting off the final rally from the 2011 low. In the short run — next

Inflation in Focus

Author: Bruce Liegel This week’s CPI report data was in line with market forecasts and consensus views, but core CPI continues to be quite sticky. While overall CPI is down to 3.2%, core is still quite elevated at 4.7% and is driving fears that the Federal Reserve

This Week in Global Macro (August 7)

Data takes center stage, Fitch downgrades, and market leaders begin to falter. It was another week of important data, with the BOE hiking by 25bps, and the ISM and NFP reports in the US both weaker than expected. With all central banks indicating data dependency in their monetary policy decisions,

This Week in Global Macro (July 31)

Author: Bruce Liegel Last week, the market saw a plethora of central bank meetings, many regurgitating the same message from the previous meetings, with minimal reaction on the rate front. For the week, the US 10-year was up 10 bps on the week, the German 10-year was up 2 bps,

This Week in Global Macro (July 24)

Author: Bruce Liegel The European markets have continued to trade sideways, but may be setting up for a move towards new highs – possibly making new highs before the anticipated correction occurs. Since the 2020 lows, the French CAC is still in a 5-wave sequence, with the final leg still in