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Interest Rates

2024 Interest Rate Outlook

Author: Bruce Liegel Over the past three years, US interest rates have increased by the greatest amount in over 50 years, rising from near zero to over 5%. The first stage of the bull market in higher rates is now complete, indicating that over the next 12-18 months, interest rates

The Crisis of Aging

Author: Bruce Liegel The birth rate has been collapsing almost everywhere, with the exception of a few countries. Chart 1 below shows the global fertility rate, with the majority of the world at less than two live births per woman or the replacement level. Where this begins to really impact
The Crisis of Aging

The End of Cheap Labor

Author: Bruce Liegel This paper contains three parts. Part I will set out the financial underpinning of why demographics are important to global macro investing. In Part II, I will explain how the current demographic trends are affecting labor costs, inflation, commodities, and pension funds. Part III will be a

The Carry in the Conundrum

Author: Bruce Liegel Preamble This is the first of what I hope will be a long-term monthly publication of my thoughts on investing in markets. My hope is that I can show you how institutional investors look at markets and how they invest. I have had a front-seat view as
The Carry in the Conundrum