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US Economy

Mutual Funds Embrace Leverage, Pushing Treasury Futures Holdings to Record Highs

Mutual funds are increasingly turning to Treasury futures to gain exposure to rising interest rates and boost returns, according to a research note published by the Federal Reserve last week. The study reveals a surge in mutual funds’ net long positions in Treasury futures in recent months, reaching record high
Mutual Funds Embrace Leverage, Pushing Treasury Futures Holdings to Record Highs

Delayed Fed Rate Cuts Raise Credit Risks and Spillover Concerns, S&P Global Warns

S&P Global has pushed back its forecast for the first Federal Reserve rate cut to December 2024, citing persistent inflation and unexpectedly strong economic data. This delay in easing monetary policy raises concerns about elevated credit risks in the US and potential spillover effects on other economies, particularly
Delayed Fed Rate Cuts Raise Credit Risks and Spillover Concerns, S&P Global Warns

US Consumer Borrowing Growth Slows Amidst High Interest Rates

The pace of consumer borrowing in the United States has slowed dramatically after a period of rapid growth in the wake of the pandemic, according to a report by Moody's Analytics published last week. Several factors are contributing to this trend, including high interest rates, tightening lending standards,
US Consumer Borrowing Growth Slows Amidst High Interest Rates

German Factory Orders Slump for Third Consecutive Month, Casting Shadow on Manufacturing Sector

New factory orders in Germany continued their downward trend in March, falling 0.4% month-over-month, according to a report by Moody's Analytics. This marks the third consecutive monthly decline, underscoring the persistent weakness in demand for industrial goods and raising concerns about the outlook for the German manufacturing

Jobs Report Fuels Market Optimism: UBS

The weaker-than-expected April jobs report has sparked optimism for a soft landing in the US economy, prompting UBS to reiterate its positive outlook for quality bonds and quality stocks. Friday's report showed a smaller-than-anticipated increase in employment growth, alongside moderating wage growth and a slight uptick in the

Fitch Warns of Elevated Credit Risks as "No-Landing" Scenario Gains Traction

Fitch Ratings has issued a warning about increased credit risks in the US market as the likelihood of a "no-landing" scenario, where economic growth and interest rates remain largely unchanged, gains traction. This shift in expectations is driven by persistent inflation, which has cast doubt on the timing

Advanced Economies Navigate Away from Immediate Stagflation Threat: BNY Mellon

Despite concerns over recent economic data, advanced economies appear to be moving away from the immediate threat of stagflation, according to a new report by BNY Mellon. The report highlights positive trends in real wage growth and productivity, suggesting a more favorable economic environment compared to the previous year. The

US Economy Shows Signs of Cooling, But Stubborn Inflation Keeps Fed on Hold

The US economy is exhibiting signs of moderation, with a still-robust but cooling labor market and persistent inflation pressures, according to a research report by Wells Fargo. This dynamic supports the Federal Reserve's patient approach to monetary policy, as the central bank opted to keep interest rates unchanged

Treasury Signals Stable Debt Issuance, Calming Market Jitters

The US Department of the Treasury announced plans to raise approximately $17.2 billion through Treasury securities auctions next week, indicating a stabilization in borrowing needs after several quarters of increases. This news brought some relief to Treasury investors who have been closely monitoring the government's debt issuance
Treasury Signals Stable Debt Issuance, Calming Market Jitters

UBS Expects Soft Landing

Despite recent market volatility and concerns over persistent inflation, UBS remains confident in its base case scenario of a "soft landing" for the US economy, according to the bank's latest daily report. UBS anticipates a cooling of both economic growth and inflation, paving the way for