Australian Consumer Confidence Takes a Dip as Uncertainty Grows
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Australia's consumer confidence dipped in December, reversing some of the gains made earlier in the year, as persistent inflation, elevated interest rates, and global economic uncertainty continue to weigh on household sentiment, reports Bloomberg.
The Westpac Banking Corp. consumer sentiment index fell 2% to 92.8 points in December, ending a period of steady improvement. While this represents a significant improvement from a year ago, the index remains below the 100-point threshold that separates optimism from pessimism.
"There has been a loss of confidence around the outlook, particularly for the economy," said Matthew Hassan, senior economist at Westpac, to Bloomberg. He attributed this to factors such as a disappointing September quarter national accounts update, lingering uncertainty about inflation and interest rate easing prospects, and a more volatile global economic backdrop.
Australian households have faced significant challenges in the post-pandemic period, with a surge in inflation prompting the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to raise interest rates to 4.35%, where they have remained throughout 2023. This has put pressure on the private sector, with the economy showing sluggish growth in the second and third quarters and the property market cooling down.
"Consumer sentiment towards housing deteriorated in December, with homebuyer sentiment falling back to very pessimistic levels and price expectations continuing to soften," said Hassan to Bloomberg. The time to buy a dwelling index fell 6% to 81.6.
The survey, conducted in the week ending December 13, captured both the RBA's meeting last week, signaling increased confidence in taming inflation, and Thursday's surprise drop in unemployment to 3.9%.
"The biggest pull-back was around expectations for the economy," noted Hassan. The economic outlook, next 12 months sub-index dropped 9.6% to 91.2, while the economic outlook, next 5 years sub-index fell 7.9% to 95.9. Both sub-indexes unwound about half of the rally seen over the previous two months.