Biden LNG Study Unlikely to Block Exports, but May Highlight Concerns

The Biden administration is set to release a long-awaited study on liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports as soon as Tuesday, but it is unlikely to declare the trade "not in the public interest," according to two industry sources speaking to Reuters. President Biden had paused approvals for new U.S. LNG exports to large consumers in Asia and Europe in January to allow for this assessment of the industry's environmental and economic impacts.

President-elect Donald Trump, who had previously opposed the pause, is expected to move swiftly to reverse it upon taking office, working to expedite export permits for new LNG projects.

The Energy Department's study is anticipated to present scenarios outlining potential negative consequences of the burgeoning U.S. LNG export sector, including price increases for domestic natural gas and environmental concerns. However, the report is unlikely to definitively conclude that LNG exports are detrimental to public welfare, a finding that could have potentially bolstered legal challenges against LNG projects.

"The study is expected to include scenarios that warn about potential price impacts on domestic natural gas and on the environmental impacts of the boom in U.S. LNG exports," the sources stated, speaking on condition of anonymity.

LNG and natural gas producers had criticized Biden's initial pause, characterizing it as an election-year maneuver that jeopardized the energy security of allies and partners. This came as Europe sought to diversify its gas supply away from Russia following the invasion of Ukraine.

The administration countered that the pause did not impede existing LNG exports, which are on track to more than double by the end of the decade. The U.S. became the world's leading LNG shipper in 2023.