China's Birth Rate Set to Plunge

Despite a short-lived uptick in births in 2023, China is poised to witness a renewed decline in its birth rate this year, according to experts, as reported by the South China Morning Post. While the full-year figures have yet to be released, demographers warn that the modest rise observed last year was likely a temporary anomaly fueled by the auspicious Year of the Dragon and a surge in marriages.

The 2023 increase in births, reaching 9.54 million compared to 9.02 million in 2022, had sparked optimism in Chinese media and fueled speculation that the government's pro-natal policies were starting to yield results. However, experts caution that the underlying demographic trends point to an inexorable long-term decline in population.

A key indicator of this trend is the sharp decline in marriage registrations. While 2023 saw a significant increase in marriages, reaching 7.68 million – the first rise in nearly a decade – the first nine months of 2024 have witnessed a dramatic 16.6% drop in new couples, according to data from China's Ministry of Civil Affairs. This downturn suggests that the "dragon baby" effect is waning, and the broader demographic challenges remain unresolved.

The decline in marriage registrations is projected to translate into a significant drop in births for 2024, further solidifying the long-term trajectory of China's shrinking population. While the government's pro-natal policies have aimed to incentivize couples to have more children, these measures appear insufficient to counteract the deep-rooted cultural and economic factors driving the demographic shift.