China's Crude Oil Import Growth to Stutter in 2025, CNPC Predicts

China's crude oil import growth is expected to slow to a crawl in 2025, rising by just 1%, according to a new outlook released by state-owned energy giant China National Petroleum Corp (CNPC). This muted growth is projected to persist through 2030.

This forecast, reported by Reuters, suggests that the world's second-largest refining industry will import 559 million metric tons of crude oil this year, equivalent to approximately 11.18 million barrels per day.

The projected marginal increase aligns with analysts' expectations that demand from the world's leading crude oil importer is nearing its peak. This trend is attributed to factors such as the rapid adoption of electric vehicles and slowing economic growth, both of which are expected to curb fuel demand.

CNPC forecasts that China's refinery throughput will reach 733.75 million metric tons (14.68 million bpd) in 2025, representing a 3.6% increase compared to 2024.

Meanwhile, the state-owned energy major anticipates a more robust 6.2% increase in natural gas demand this year, reaching a record 448.5 billion cubic meters. This growth is projected to be driven by increased industrial and residential demand.

Local natural gas production is forecast to rise by 2.9% annually from 2026 to 2030, reaching 300 billion cubic meters by 2030. Despite this increase, China's reliance on natural gas imports is expected to decrease slightly to 45% over the same period, though CNPC did not provide a comparison point.

China's position as the world's largest importer of liquefied natural gas (LNG) is further solidified by the fact that imports in 2024 rose 7.7% to a three-year high of 76.65 million tons.