Goldman Sachs Cools on Indian Stocks, Citing Slowing Growth
Sign up for Global Macro Playbook: Stay ahead of the curve on global macro trends.
Goldman Sachs downgraded its outlook on Indian equities to neutral from overweight on Tuesday, signaling growing concern over the impact of slowing economic growth on corporate earnings, reports Bloomberg. The move, outlined in a note by strategists including Sunil Koul, marks a shift from the firm's optimistic stance earlier this year and comes as the Indian stock market grapples with its worst month in over four years.
While acknowledging the long-term positive trajectory of the Indian economy, Goldman Sachs highlights immediate challenges. "Economic growth is cyclically slowing down across many pockets," the strategists wrote, pointing to weakening earnings sentiment, an increasing number of earnings-per-share cuts, and disappointing early results for the September quarter.
High valuations and a less supportive global economic backdrop further cloud the near-term outlook for Indian stocks, according to the report. The benchmark NSE Nifty 50 Index has already shed more than 5% in October, signaling investor anxiety.
Despite this, Goldman Sachs believes a major market correction is unlikely due to steady support from domestic investors. However, the firm anticipates a period of "time correction" over the next three to six months, revising its 12-month target for the NSE Nifty 50 Index down to 27,000 from 27,500. This implies a potential upside of 10% from Tuesday's close.
The Goldman Sachs report aligns with a broader trend of foreign investors pulling back from Indian equities. Bloomberg data reveals net sales of $7.8 billion so far in October, putting the market on track for its largest monthly outflow since March 2020.
However, not everyone shares Goldman's pessimism. UBS Global Wealth Management sees the current dip as a buying opportunity, arguing that the slowdown in India's growth and earnings is temporary.
Tan Min Lan, Asia-Pacific head of UBS’s Chief Investment Office, emphasized the transitory nature of the current economic headwinds in a Bloomberg TV interview. She encouraged investors to increase their strategic allocation to the Indian market, citing the nation's strong fundamentals and potential for a swift economic rebound.