OPEC+ Sticks to Oil Output Plan, Removes US EIA From Monitoring Sources

OPEC+ has decided to maintain its current policy of gradually increasing oil production starting in April, according to Nikkei Asia. The group also removed the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) from the list of sources used to monitor its production and adherence to supply agreements.

The decision comes after repeated clashes between OPEC+ and the US government during Donald Trump's first presidency (2017-2021) when Trump demanded higher oil production to offset the decline in Iranian supply caused by US sanctions. Since his return to office in January, Trump has again called on OPEC to reduce oil prices, arguing that high prices have aided Russia's war effort in Ukraine.

Russia's Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak, who participated in a Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) meeting of OPEC and its allies, stated that the group discussed Trump's call for increased production but confirmed that OPEC+ will begin boosting output from April 1 as previously planned.

The meeting also resulted in changes to the list of consultants and other firms used by OPEC+ to monitor its production.

"After thorough analysis from the OPEC Secretariat, the Committee replaced Rystad Energy and the Energy Information Administration (EIA) with Kpler, OilX, and ESAI, as part of the secondary sources used to assess the crude oil production and conformity," OPEC+ stated in a press release.

One OPEC+ source indicated that the removal of EIA data was due to the agency's failure to provide the necessary information and was not politically motivated. The US government has yet to respond to requests for comment.

OPEC+ utilizes secondary sources to monitor its output, a practice stemming from past disputes within OPEC regarding oil production levels. The group occasionally revises the list of sources. In March 2022, OPEC+ removed the International Energy Agency (IEA) as a secondary source, a decision attributed by sources to Saudi Arabia's concerns about US influence on the IEA's data.

Monday's meeting coincided with a rise in oil prices following Trump's imposition of tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China, raising concerns about potential supply disruptions. However, prices have yet to fully recover to the $83 per barrel high reached on January 15, likely due to concerns about the impact of US sanctions on Russia.

OPEC+ is currently reducing its output by 5.85 million barrels per day (bpd), approximately 5.7% of global supply, a decision made in a series of steps since 2022. The group extended its latest round of cuts through the first quarter of 2025 in December, delaying a planned increase in output until April. This extension was one of several delays prompted by weak demand and rising supply from non-OPEC+ sources.