Trump May Hit Copper Imports With Tariffs Within Weeks: Bloomberg

US President Donald Trump could impose tariffs on copper imports as early as next month, potentially disrupting global copper markets. Bloomberg reports that the Commerce Department's investigation into potential tariffs, initially slated for a 270-day completion, is expected to conclude much sooner.

While the investigation is ongoing, several sources familiar with the matter suggest a decision is imminent, with Trump having repeatedly expressed his intention to impose tariffs on copper imports.

"The administration is proceeding expeditiously with the review, and a conclusion could be possible well before the 270-day deadline," an official familiar with the process told Bloomberg, speaking on condition of anonymity.

The White House has declined to comment on the matter. However, in February, White House trade advisor Peter Navarro indicated a swift resolution, stating, "You will see our new secretary of commerce, Howard Lutnick, will move in what I like to call Trump time, which is quickly as possible to get results of the investigation on the president’s desk for possible action."

Trump has previously threatened to impose a 25% duty on all copper imports, a move that could significantly impact the global market for this crucial metal, used in various applications, including pipes and electrical cables.

The potential for swift action contrasts with the more drawn-out investigations that preceded the steel and aluminum tariffs imposed during Trump's first term, which took approximately 10 months to complete.

News of the impending tariffs has already impacted copper prices. Copper traded on New York's Comex surged as much as 3.1% to a record high of $5.3740 a pound, before retreating slightly to $5.2925. Meanwhile, the benchmark price on the London Metal Exchange dipped 1.1% to $10,004 a ton, widening the price gap between the two markets to over $1,700 a ton.

"Copper is rising quickly, especially in New York, to price in the upcoming 25% tariffs," explained Xu Wanqiu, an analyst at Cofco Futures Co. "Now the risk is prices will quickly retreat if the tariffs are short of 25%."

The significant price differential between London and New York has triggered a global scramble among traders and dealers to ship copper to the US, seeking to capitalize on the potential premium created by the tariffs. This, in turn, has created a shortage of copper in other regions, particularly in China, the world's largest copper consumer.

The decline in London copper prices reflects the uncertainty surrounding the timing of the tariffs and the potential for traders to alleviate the potential shortage by shipping more copper to the US before the tariffs are implemented.

"It’s really about, in how many weeks the tariffs will land," stated Li Yaoyao, an analyst with Xinfu Futures Co.

The potential impact of copper tariffs has been a subject of much discussion, with analysts at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Citigroup Inc. predicting a 25% tariff by year's end. Trafigura, the world's largest copper trading firm, has warned that the price could climb to $12,000 per ton from its current level of around $10,000.

In a recent address to Congress, Trump, referencing the steel and aluminum tariffs, appeared to extend this to include lumber and copper, stating that a 25% tariff had been imposed on these materials, although this claim has been met with some skepticism.