Newsletter
While the US S&P 500 struggles, weighed down by trade war fears and a darkening economic outlook, Chinese stocks are surging. Is the market witnessing a "Great Rotation" of capital, as investors shift their focus from the long-dominant US market to a resurgent China? There'
Newsletter
After years of US market dominance, a remarkable shift is underway. Since the start of 2025, European equities have outpaced their American counterparts, raising the possibility that the era of "US exceptionalism" may be drawing to a close. Germany's DAX has surged over 14% year-to-date, while
Newsletter
JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon has been a persistent voice warning of the risks of stagflation. In April last year, Dimon said “stagflation is on the list of possible things” that could happen to the US economy. He repeated the warning at an investment conference in September, saying that a
Newsletter
For years, the United States has enjoyed a period of economic "exceptionalism," consistently outperforming other major economies in terms of growth, job creation, and market returns. But that narrative is now being called into question, with recent market signals suggesting US exceptionalism may be facing its most significant
Newsletter
Gold is on a tear. The precious metal hit record highs this week and is already up 8% year-to-date. Initial forecasts from major banks and economists pointed to the possibility of gold breaking the USD 3,000/oz level amid escalating geopolitical tensions and strong central bank buying. Yet the
Newsletter
The battle lines were drawn quickly. Following the Federal Reserve’s decision to hold interest rates steady at their most recent policy meeting, Donald Trump took to his social media platform, Truth Social, to voice his displeasure, not just with the decision itself, but with the very institution in charge
Newsletter
The Federal Reserve, in its December meeting, delivered exactly what the market had predicted: a 25-basis-point cut to interest rates. Yet, instead of celebrating the anticipated move towards easier monetary policy, markets threw a tantrum. Stocks tumbled, bond yields soared, and volatility spiked – all on the back of a move
Newsletter
For the past 50 years, every U.S. president has made it a priority to advocate for cheap and secure energy. Donald Trump is no exception. His campaign promises include a pledge to "drill, baby, drill" and cut energy costs for Americans by half. This focus on energy
Equities
Author: Bruce Liegel The German Dax made new all-time highs last week, and as Chart 1 shows it has been on a tear over the last few weeks as the market is now aggressively pricing in a dovish interest-rate policy change by global central banks. The so-called “pivot” is now
Commodities
Author: Bruce Liegel Equities Fed Chairman Powell delivered an early Christmas present to the market on Friday when he pretty much laid out the end of this tightening cycle. "Risk-on" was the day’s theme, with the Russell 2000 closing up over 3% on the day. The S&
Commodities
Where are we in the gold price cycle, and what is the future path of gold? Below is our conversation with Bruce Liegel for his analysis on what lies ahead for gold. Hedder: What’s the main driver for gold ? Bruce: Gold has been in a bull market since 2000.
Commentary
Author: Bruce Liegel For most of my 30+ years in trading I have heard that the demise of the US dollar is coming and with it the end of its reserve-currency status. It doesn’t matter the time frame, there is always someone who makes what appears to be a
