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Commentary

An In-Depth Look at The German Dax Index

Author: Bruce Liegel The German Dax made new all-time highs last week, and as Chart 1 shows it has been on a tear over the last few weeks as the market is now aggressively pricing in a dovish interest-rate policy change by global central banks. The so-called “pivot” is now

Risk-on Sentiment Prevails, Oil Slump Continues, and Gold Soars

Author: Bruce Liegel Equities Fed Chairman Powell delivered an early Christmas present to the market on Friday when he pretty much laid out the end of this tightening cycle. "Risk-on" was the day’s theme, with the Russell 2000 closing up over 3% on the day. The S&

A Look at Forex

Author: Bruce Liegel For most of my 30+ years in trading I have heard that the demise of the US dollar is coming and with it the end of its reserve-currency status. It doesn’t matter the time frame, there is always someone who makes what appears to be a

A Look at Long Term Charts

Author: Bruce Liegel This week’s focus is going to be on long-term setups that are now developing in a number of markets. Typically, I glance at long-term charts weekly, but a few times a year I take a hard look if set-ups are occurring. This is the case in

Dollar Heads Higher, Euro Lower

Author: Bruce Liegel The US dollar continued to grind higher last week, now up almost 6% after the critical 100 level held in July, as outlined in our previous weekly outlooks (see Chart 1). The overall trend continues to point to potential higher levels over the next few months. Chart

Equities Rallied, Rates Jumped, and Spikes in Energy

Author: Bruce Liegel Last week's price action in equities was quite strong, with the corrective rally back to the lower trend line of the channel met with resistance following the mixed non-farm payrolls employment report. As discussed a few weeks ago, the breakout of the trend channel in

Rates Made New Highs and Energy Rallied

Author: Bruce Liegel The dollar index has held the key support near 100, marked by the horizontal blue line on Chart 1 below. The dollar has had a nice 4% or so bounce off this support, starting off the final rally from the 2011 low. In the short run — next

Inflation in Focus

Author: Bruce Liegel This week’s CPI report data was in line with market forecasts and consensus views, but core CPI continues to be quite sticky. While overall CPI is down to 3.2%, core is still quite elevated at 4.7% and is driving fears that the Federal Reserve

This Week in Global Macro (August 7)

Data takes center stage, Fitch downgrades, and market leaders begin to falter. It was another week of important data, with the BOE hiking by 25bps, and the ISM and NFP reports in the US both weaker than expected. With all central banks indicating data dependency in their monetary policy decisions,

This Week in Global Macro (July 31)

Author: Bruce Liegel Last week, the market saw a plethora of central bank meetings, many regurgitating the same message from the previous meetings, with minimal reaction on the rate front. For the week, the US 10-year was up 10 bps on the week, the German 10-year was up 2 bps,