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Interest Rates

Weekly Recap | Fed's Hawkish Cut and Market Sell-Off

The Federal Reserve, in its December meeting, delivered exactly what the market had predicted: a 25-basis-point cut to interest rates. Yet, instead of celebrating the anticipated move towards easier monetary policy, markets threw a tantrum. Stocks tumbled, bond yields soared, and volatility spiked – all on the back of a move

The Crisis of Aging

Author: Bruce Liegel The birth rate has been collapsing almost everywhere, with the exception of a few countries. Chart 1 below shows the global fertility rate, with the majority of the world at less than two live births per woman or the replacement level. Where this begins to really impact
The Crisis of Aging

The End of Cheap Labor

Author: Bruce Liegel This paper contains three parts. Part I will set out the financial underpinning of why demographics are important to global macro investing. In Part II, I will explain how the current demographic trends are affecting labor costs, inflation, commodities, and pension funds. Part III will be a

The Carry in the Conundrum

Author: Bruce Liegel Preamble This is the first of what I hope will be a long-term monthly publication of my thoughts on investing in markets. My hope is that I can show you how institutional investors look at markets and how they invest. I have had a front-seat view as
The Carry in the Conundrum