Sign in Subscribe

Interest Rates

Euro Zone Debt-to-GDP Ratio Declines, but Concerns Remain

The aggregate debt-to-GDP ratio in the Eurozone improved in 2023, declining to 88.6% from 90.8% the previous year, per data released by Eurostat. This marks a step towards pre-pandemic levels, when the ratio stood at 84% in 2019. However, the ratio remains significantly higher than its historical norm

Nomura Bullish on Fixed Income, Cautious in Near Term

Nomura is bullish on the fixed income market over the medium term, citing compelling yields and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve later this year. "Rates are ultimately in deeply restrictive territory and will need to be cut repeatedly to avoid undue pressure on economies that

BOJ Chief Signals Rate Hikes If Inflation Persists

Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda has indicated that the central bank will likely raise interest rates if underlying inflation continues to rise. Speaking at a think tank event in Washington, Ueda acknowledged the challenges of determining the appropriate level of interest rates as Japan has not experienced a sustained

Moody's Analytics: ECB Rate Cut on Track for June

Moody's Analytics expects the European Central Bank (ECB) to implement its first interest rate cut in June, despite persistent inflation within the services sector, according to a research report published on Thursday. While acknowledging the need for further data to solidify the decision, the research firm suggests the

The Crisis of Aging

Author: Bruce Liegel The birth rate has been collapsing almost everywhere, with the exception of a few countries. Chart 1 below shows the global fertility rate, with the majority of the world at less than two live births per woman or the replacement level. Where this begins to really impact
The Crisis of Aging

The End of Cheap Labor

Author: Bruce Liegel This paper contains three parts. Part I will set out the financial underpinning of why demographics are important to global macro investing. In Part II, I will explain how the current demographic trends are affecting labor costs, inflation, commodities, and pension funds. Part III will be a

The Carry in the Conundrum

Author: Bruce Liegel Preamble This is the first of what I hope will be a long-term monthly publication of my thoughts on investing in markets. My hope is that I can show you how institutional investors look at markets and how they invest. I have had a front-seat view as
The Carry in the Conundrum