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Using Continuation Charts for Price Forecasting

Author: Bruce Liegel Sometimes it is very helpful to take a step back and take a long-term view of markets. I have found this to be very beneficial, especially when an exogenous or geo-political event occurs that causes a short-term price spike in the market. There are 3 things that

[Video] Currency Intervention: Will Japanese Government Draw a Line in the Sand?

The Japanese Yen keeps falling these days. How far will it go? Will the Japanese government draw a line in the sand and intervene in the forex market? We talked to Bruce and Takehiko Nakao, the former vice finance minister of Japan, for a deep dive into the topic. In

Energy Falls, While Bond Vigilantes Return

Author: Bruce Liegel It has been a very wild past few weeks in the markets as the froth of the bull market has reversed in a number of sectors. Some of this has been led by the large increase in “term premium” in the long end of the bond market,

Oil: What a Fracking World

Author: Bruce Liegel Executive summary: * Oil prices rallied on the back of the OPEC agreement * The refill of SPR will act as a bullish factor * The drop in horizontal rig count, oil well productivity, and drilled uncompleted wells also contribute to the bull case * Soaring labor and drilling costs in
Oil: What a Fracking World

[Video] The Next Crisis in Pensions and US Government Debt

With an explosion in government deficit and an elevated interest rate environment, are we seeing the beginning of a crisis in sovereign debt and pension funds? In this episode, Bruce is joined by Nicholas Glinsman for a deep dive on this topic.

Dollar Heads Higher, Euro Lower

Author: Bruce Liegel The US dollar continued to grind higher last week, now up almost 6% after the critical 100 level held in July, as outlined in our previous weekly outlooks (see Chart 1). The overall trend continues to point to potential higher levels over the next few months. Chart

[Video] Will Inflation Save Japan from the Lost Decades?

Is Japan finally getting out of the Lost Decades? In this video interview, Bruce Liegel and former BOJ Deputy Governor Masazumi Wakatabe explained the macro forces that are driving the Japanese economy and stock market.
[Video] Will Inflation Save Japan from the Lost Decades?

The Resurgence of Japan

Author: Bruce Liegel Introduction The Nikkei and Topix stock indices have been on a tear in 2023, with both indices up nearly 25% on the year in yen terms. This rally has been somewhat fueled by a weaker yen, down 12% on the year, but there is a bigger story
The Resurgence of Japan

Equities Rallied, Rates Jumped, and Spikes in Energy

Author: Bruce Liegel Last week's price action in equities was quite strong, with the corrective rally back to the lower trend line of the channel met with resistance following the mixed non-farm payrolls employment report. As discussed a few weeks ago, the breakout of the trend channel in

Rates Made New Highs and Energy Rallied

Author: Bruce Liegel The dollar index has held the key support near 100, marked by the horizontal blue line on Chart 1 below. The dollar has had a nice 4% or so bounce off this support, starting off the final rally from the 2011 low. In the short run — next