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The Resurgence of Japan

Author: Bruce Liegel Introduction The Nikkei and Topix stock indices have been on a tear in 2023, with both indices up nearly 25% on the year in yen terms. This rally has been somewhat fueled by a weaker yen, down 12% on the year, but there is a bigger story
The Resurgence of Japan

Equities Rallied, Rates Jumped, and Spikes in Energy

Author: Bruce Liegel Last week's price action in equities was quite strong, with the corrective rally back to the lower trend line of the channel met with resistance following the mixed non-farm payrolls employment report. As discussed a few weeks ago, the breakout of the trend channel in

Rates Made New Highs and Energy Rallied

Author: Bruce Liegel The dollar index has held the key support near 100, marked by the horizontal blue line on Chart 1 below. The dollar has had a nice 4% or so bounce off this support, starting off the final rally from the 2011 low. In the short run — next

The Institutionalization of Gold

Author: Bruce Liegel Executive summary: * How gold, in a bull market since 2000, has become 'institutionalized' * A look at gold ETFs, and the role of central banks, inflation and interest rates * And a wider market outlook for gold as well as silver, palladium and platinum Introduction Our previous
The Institutionalization of Gold

Inflation in Focus

Author: Bruce Liegel This week’s CPI report data was in line with market forecasts and consensus views, but core CPI continues to be quite sticky. While overall CPI is down to 3.2%, core is still quite elevated at 4.7% and is driving fears that the Federal Reserve

This Week in Global Macro (August 7)

Data takes center stage, Fitch downgrades, and market leaders begin to falter. It was another week of important data, with the BOE hiking by 25bps, and the ISM and NFP reports in the US both weaker than expected. With all central banks indicating data dependency in their monetary policy decisions,

This Week in Global Macro (July 31)

Author: Bruce Liegel Last week, the market saw a plethora of central bank meetings, many regurgitating the same message from the previous meetings, with minimal reaction on the rate front. For the week, the US 10-year was up 10 bps on the week, the German 10-year was up 2 bps,

Commodities as an Investment Option

Author: Bruce Liegel Over the last year, there has been a lot of speculation that we are in the early stages of another commodity super cycle. The goal of this paper will be to break down the macro commodity opportunities and take a deep look at the economics driving the

This Week in Global Macro (July 24)

Author: Bruce Liegel The European markets have continued to trade sideways, but may be setting up for a move towards new highs – possibly making new highs before the anticipated correction occurs. Since the 2020 lows, the French CAC is still in a 5-wave sequence, with the final leg still in

This Week in Global Macro (July 17)

Author: Bruce Liegel Last week's US CPI data was the market mover and came in just slightly lower than expected, but enough to temporary give the green light for risk on trades. US 10-year rates pretty much did a round trip, wiping out the yield increase from the