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The Institutionalization of Gold

Author: Bruce Liegel Executive summary: * How gold, in a bull market since 2000, has become 'institutionalized' * A look at gold ETFs, and the role of central banks, inflation and interest rates * And a wider market outlook for gold as well as silver, palladium and platinum Introduction Our previous
The Institutionalization of Gold

Inflation in Focus

Author: Bruce Liegel This week’s CPI report data was in line with market forecasts and consensus views, but core CPI continues to be quite sticky. While overall CPI is down to 3.2%, core is still quite elevated at 4.7% and is driving fears that the Federal Reserve

This Week in Global Macro (August 7)

Data takes center stage, Fitch downgrades, and market leaders begin to falter. It was another week of important data, with the BOE hiking by 25bps, and the ISM and NFP reports in the US both weaker than expected. With all central banks indicating data dependency in their monetary policy decisions,

This Week in Global Macro (July 31)

Author: Bruce Liegel Last week, the market saw a plethora of central bank meetings, many regurgitating the same message from the previous meetings, with minimal reaction on the rate front. For the week, the US 10-year was up 10 bps on the week, the German 10-year was up 2 bps,

Commodities as an Investment Option

Author: Bruce Liegel Over the last year, there has been a lot of speculation that we are in the early stages of another commodity super cycle. The goal of this paper will be to break down the macro commodity opportunities and take a deep look at the economics driving the

This Week in Global Macro (July 24)

Author: Bruce Liegel The European markets have continued to trade sideways, but may be setting up for a move towards new highs – possibly making new highs before the anticipated correction occurs. Since the 2020 lows, the French CAC is still in a 5-wave sequence, with the final leg still in

This Week in Global Macro (July 17)

Author: Bruce Liegel Last week's US CPI data was the market mover and came in just slightly lower than expected, but enough to temporary give the green light for risk on trades. US 10-year rates pretty much did a round trip, wiping out the yield increase from the

The Crisis of Aging

Author: Bruce Liegel The birth rate has been collapsing almost everywhere, with the exception of a few countries. Chart 1 below shows the global fertility rate, with the majority of the world at less than two live births per woman or the replacement level. Where this begins to really impact
The Crisis of Aging

The End of Cheap Labor

Author: Bruce Liegel This paper contains three parts. Part I will set out the financial underpinning of why demographics are important to global macro investing. In Part II, I will explain how the current demographic trends are affecting labor costs, inflation, commodities, and pension funds. Part III will be a

REITs: An Overview

Author: Bruce Liegel I was recently asked to weigh in on REITs, and here are my quick thoughts. What are REITs? A REIT is a real estate investment trust, or simply an investment vehicle for companies to sell a stake in their firm via an equity offering. REITs give the