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US Economy

US Labor Market Braces for Mid-Cycle Slowdown

The US labor market is poised to enter a slowdown in the coming months, according to an analysis published by Goldman Sachs last week. The bank cites declining temp penetration, a leading indicator of broader labor market trends, as evidence of the impending slowdown. "With increasing instances of hiring

Corporate Credit Spreads Remain Tight

Corporate credit spreads widened slightly during the last weekly period, but remained tight overall. This indicates that market participants remain confident in the creditworthiness of borrowers and view the overall economy favorably, according to a report by Moody's Analytics. Moody's Ratings long-term average corporate bond spread
Corporate Credit Spreads Remain Tight

China Real Estate: Multi-Year Adjustments Needed, RBC Predicts

China's housing market is grappling with significant issues that could hinder the country's economic growth for years to come, according to a memo by Royal Bank of Canada (RBC). Affordability of Chinese Real Estate A key concern highlighted by the asset management firm is affordability. Housing
China Real Estate: Multi-Year Adjustments Needed, RBC Predicts

Global Economy Shows Signs of Sustained Growth, But Inflation Concerns Remain

The global economy is picking up steam according to a report by S&P Global. The latest Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data from S&P Global reached 52.3, a nine-month high, indicating a broad-based recovery across sectors and regions. "This suggests a sustained and positive outlook

BOJ Chief Signals Rate Hikes If Inflation Persists

Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda has indicated that the central bank will likely raise interest rates if underlying inflation continues to rise. Speaking at a think tank event in Washington, Ueda acknowledged the challenges of determining the appropriate level of interest rates as Japan has not experienced a sustained

Moody's Analytics: ECB Rate Cut on Track for June

Moody's Analytics expects the European Central Bank (ECB) to implement its first interest rate cut in June, despite persistent inflation within the services sector, according to a research report published on Thursday. While acknowledging the need for further data to solidify the decision, the research firm suggests the

The Crisis of Aging

Author: Bruce Liegel The birth rate has been collapsing almost everywhere, with the exception of a few countries. Chart 1 below shows the global fertility rate, with the majority of the world at less than two live births per woman or the replacement level. Where this begins to really impact
The Crisis of Aging

The End of Cheap Labor

Author: Bruce Liegel This paper contains three parts. Part I will set out the financial underpinning of why demographics are important to global macro investing. In Part II, I will explain how the current demographic trends are affecting labor costs, inflation, commodities, and pension funds. Part III will be a

The Carry in the Conundrum

Author: Bruce Liegel Preamble This is the first of what I hope will be a long-term monthly publication of my thoughts on investing in markets. My hope is that I can show you how institutional investors look at markets and how they invest. I have had a front-seat view as
The Carry in the Conundrum