Newsletter
Data takes center stage, Fitch downgrades, and market leaders begin to falter. It was another week of important data, with the BOE hiking by 25bps, and the ISM and NFP reports in the US both weaker than expected. With all central banks indicating data dependency in their monetary policy decisions,
Commentary
Author: Bruce Liegel Last week, the market saw a plethora of central bank meetings, many regurgitating the same message from the previous meetings, with minimal reaction on the rate front. For the week, the US 10-year was up 10 bps on the week, the German 10-year was up 2 bps,
Commodities
Author: Bruce Liegel Over the last year, there has been a lot of speculation that we are in the early stages of another commodity super cycle. The goal of this paper will be to break down the macro commodity opportunities and take a deep look at the economics driving the
Commentary
Author: Bruce Liegel The European markets have continued to trade sideways, but may be setting up for a move towards new highs – possibly making new highs before the anticipated correction occurs. Since the 2020 lows, the French CAC is still in a 5-wave sequence, with the final leg still in
Newsletter
Author: Bruce Liegel Last week's US CPI data was the market mover and came in just slightly lower than expected, but enough to temporary give the green light for risk on trades. US 10-year rates pretty much did a round trip, wiping out the yield increase from the
Economy
Author: Bruce Liegel The birth rate has been collapsing almost everywhere, with the exception of a few countries. Chart 1 below shows the global fertility rate, with the majority of the world at less than two live births per woman or the replacement level. Where this begins to really impact
Economy
Author: Bruce Liegel This paper contains three parts. Part I will set out the financial underpinning of why demographics are important to global macro investing. In Part II, I will explain how the current demographic trends are affecting labor costs, inflation, commodities, and pension funds. Part III will be a
Newsletter
Author: Bruce Liegel I was recently asked to weigh in on REITs, and here are my quick thoughts. What are REITs? A REIT is a real estate investment trust, or simply an investment vehicle for companies to sell a stake in their firm via an equity offering. REITs give the
Economy
Author: Bruce Liegel Preamble This is the first of what I hope will be a long-term monthly publication of my thoughts on investing in markets. My hope is that I can show you how institutional investors look at markets and how they invest. I have had a front-seat view as