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Deep Dive

2024 Equity Outlook

Author: Bruce Liegel Stock markets had a furious rally into year-end after the Federal Reserve finally capitulated and announced the “end” of rate hikes. Based on the long-term trend in interest rates, this may be the end of the first tightening cycle, but just the beginning of a longer secular

2024 Interest Rate Outlook

Author: Bruce Liegel Over the past three years, US interest rates have increased by the greatest amount in over 50 years, rising from near zero to over 5%. The first stage of the bull market in higher rates is now complete, indicating that over the next 12-18 months, interest rates

Oil: What a Fracking World

Author: Bruce Liegel Executive summary: * Oil prices rallied on the back of the OPEC agreement * The refill of SPR will act as a bullish factor * The drop in horizontal rig count, oil well productivity, and drilled uncompleted wells also contribute to the bull case * Soaring labor and drilling costs in
Oil: What a Fracking World

The Resurgence of Japan

Author: Bruce Liegel Introduction The Nikkei and Topix stock indices have been on a tear in 2023, with both indices up nearly 25% on the year in yen terms. This rally has been somewhat fueled by a weaker yen, down 12% on the year, but there is a bigger story
The Resurgence of Japan

The Institutionalization of Gold

Author: Bruce Liegel Executive summary: * How gold, in a bull market since 2000, has become 'institutionalized' * A look at gold ETFs, and the role of central banks, inflation and interest rates * And a wider market outlook for gold as well as silver, palladium and platinum Introduction Our previous
The Institutionalization of Gold

Commodities as an Investment Option

Author: Bruce Liegel Over the last year, there has been a lot of speculation that we are in the early stages of another commodity super cycle. The goal of this paper will be to break down the macro commodity opportunities and take a deep look at the economics driving the

The Crisis of Aging

Author: Bruce Liegel The birth rate has been collapsing almost everywhere, with the exception of a few countries. Chart 1 below shows the global fertility rate, with the majority of the world at less than two live births per woman or the replacement level. Where this begins to really impact
The Crisis of Aging

The End of Cheap Labor

Author: Bruce Liegel This paper contains three parts. Part I will set out the financial underpinning of why demographics are important to global macro investing. In Part II, I will explain how the current demographic trends are affecting labor costs, inflation, commodities, and pension funds. Part III will be a

The Carry in the Conundrum

Author: Bruce Liegel Preamble This is the first of what I hope will be a long-term monthly publication of my thoughts on investing in markets. My hope is that I can show you how institutional investors look at markets and how they invest. I have had a front-seat view as
The Carry in the Conundrum