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Global Macro

2024 Interest Rate Outlook

Author: Bruce Liegel Over the past three years, US interest rates have increased by the greatest amount in over 50 years, rising from near zero to over 5%. The first stage of the bull market in higher rates is now complete, indicating that over the next 12-18 months, interest rates

An In-Depth Look at The German Dax Index

Author: Bruce Liegel The German Dax made new all-time highs last week, and as Chart 1 shows it has been on a tear over the last few weeks as the market is now aggressively pricing in a dovish interest-rate policy change by global central banks. The so-called “pivot” is now

Risk-on Sentiment Prevails, Oil Slump Continues, and Gold Soars

Author: Bruce Liegel Equities Fed Chairman Powell delivered an early Christmas present to the market on Friday when he pretty much laid out the end of this tightening cycle. "Risk-on" was the day’s theme, with the Russell 2000 closing up over 3% on the day. The S&

What Is the Outlook of Gold?

Where are we in the gold price cycle, and what is the future path of gold? Below is our conversation with Bruce Liegel for his analysis on what lies ahead for gold.  Hedder: What’s the main driver for gold ? Bruce: Gold has been in a bull market since 2000.

A Look at Forex

Author: Bruce Liegel For most of my 30+ years in trading I have heard that the demise of the US dollar is coming and with it the end of its reserve-currency status. It doesn’t matter the time frame, there is always someone who makes what appears to be a

A Look at Long Term Charts

Author: Bruce Liegel This week’s focus is going to be on long-term setups that are now developing in a number of markets. Typically, I glance at long-term charts weekly, but a few times a year I take a hard look if set-ups are occurring. This is the case in

Are We on the Verge of a Commodity "Supercycle"?

In this Q&A, we sat down with Bruce Liegel for a deep dive on what lies ahead for commodities and whether there is a looming "supercycle". Hedder: There are talks of a looming supercycle. Can you explain what the term means and weigh in with your

Equities Rally While US bond Rates Fall

Author: Bruce Liegel A very sharp move in markets last week, much greater than what we thought could occur when we penned our article last weekend. A number of large institutional investors were calling for market reversals last week just prior to the Federal Reserve meeting. As is usually the

A Look at S&P 500, Nasdaq and Nikkei

Author: Bruce Liegel On May 31 this year, the weekly update warned about an imminent correction in the global equity markets. The call was a little early for both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, but the rest of the global markets (except Japan) outlined in that report have

With the Rally in US 10-yr, Should We Lock in Longer Duration Positions?

Author: Bruce Liegel Interest rates moved higher again last week and have more than achieved price objectives that have been discussed for the past 6 months. Last week oil was the focus from a longer-term perspective — this week the US interest rate market will be front and center. Since the